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The pandemic and EM scarring risks

The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already faced. However, the risk of permanent scarring in many other emerging markets – including much of East Asia and Emerging Europe – is overstated. In view of the wider interest, we have made this Emerging Markets Update available to clients of our Long Run Service
William Jackson Chief Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Markets Economics Update

Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age”

Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of the structural problems that we anticipated have begun to bite and growth has weakened. There’s little that governments can do to restore economies to their previous rates of expansion since these were boosted by a series of one-off factors that can’t be repeated. But at the same time, there are few signs that they are embracing the policy reforms that could help cushion the slowdown.

18 August 2021

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Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are widening sharply, including Turkey, Chile and parts of Central Europe. Emerging Europe Drop-In (11th Aug): We’re expecting downturns in Central and Eastern Europe, but how bad could it get? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Q3 Outlook report, including the latest on Turkey, Russia and whether Hungary’s forint has further to fall. Register now.

10 August 2022

Emerging Markets Economics Update

End of the EM tightening cycle creeping closer

While DM central banks are currently raising interest rates in earnest, the past week has brought signs that tightening cycles are now nearing an end in parts of the emerging world. Indeed, with interest rates now well above neutral in much of Emerging Europe and Latin America, policymakers in most countries in these regions will probably ease off the brakes by October. Within Asia, low inflation has allowed policymakers to start tightening later and cycles will end later too, with rates at much lower levels.

8 August 2022

Frontier Markets Monthly Wrap

Five questions and answers on frontier default risks

The spreads of sovereign dollar bonds over US Treasuries are in distressed territory in almost a third of EMs covered in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, with the majority of those being frontier markets. In this note, we answer five key questions on default risks in frontier markets. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now. ​

3 August 2022

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Emerging Markets Economics Update

China’s long-term property decline: the fallout for EMs

Irrespective of how the current problems in China’s property sector are resolved, property construction there is entering a period of structural decline. Among other EMs, the main effects will be felt in metals producers in Latin America and Africa, adding to reasons to expect weak long-term growth in countries such as Brazil and South Africa. In view of the wider interest, we have made this Emerging Markets Update available to clients of our Long Run Service

7 October 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.)

The larger than expected 0.7% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q3. Persistent shortages of component parts are likely to keep industry on the backfoot in the current quarter.

5 October 2021

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM supply constraints mount

Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is likely to weigh on manufacturers’ output in the months ahead.

1 October 2021
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