Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Worsening current account positions, Bolivia’s election

One theme to emerge from the recently-released GDP figures is that domestic demand is increasingly leaking into imports, which will cause current account positions to worsen. External positions still...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

LatAm debt risks easing, but still some pockets of concern

Sovereign debt risks across Latin America have eased in the past year or so but there are still important nuances at a country level. Public finance risks in Brazil and Colombia are most concerning...

19th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q2 2025)

The weaker-than-expected 0.5% q/q expansion in Colombia’s economy is unlikely to change the central bank’s thinking and we remain comfortable with our above-consensus interest rate forecast.

15th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia...

14th August 2025 · 1 min read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025)

Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have...

31st July 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jul. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. President Trump’s tariff threats this month put Latin America in the firing line...

29th July 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Financial lifeline for Pemex, busy week for central banks

In a busy week for central banks, we expect policymakers in Chile and Colombia to resume their easing cycle and Copom to leave its policy rate unchanged. But the overarching picture in Latin America...

25th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombian peso set to be a regional underperformer

We think Colombia’s fragile fiscal position – which could get even worse ahead of next year’s election – and a likely deterioration in the current account deficit will cause the peso to fall by more...

24th July 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Lat Am in Trump’s firing line, good news on inflation

The broad-based falls shown in the CPI figures for June suggest that the inflation picture in Latin America has become a bit better, supporting our view that central banks in many places will deliver...

11th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM disinflation has further to run

Aggregate EM inflation is now at its lowest level in four years, with notable declines this year across Asia. We still think the outlook will be characterised by higher inflation in Latin America and...

10th July 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Focus

The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia

Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for...

7th July 2025 · 9 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lat Am central banks to surprise on the dovish side

Our views on the outlook for monetary policy in Latin America have been on the hawkish side for some time, but we now think that there’s scope for interest rates in many countries in the region to...

2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am

While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian...

20th June 2025 · 7 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Mexico has weathered the US’s shift toward protectionism better than many feared...

17th June 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Petro dashes Colombia’s fiscal credibility

The Colombian government’s fiscal plans unveiled late on Friday will have dashed any lingering hopes that policymakers would try to stabilise the public debt-to-GDP ratio, at least ahead of next year...

16th June 2025 · 3 mins read