Latin America Economic Outlook

Electoral forks in the road

Latin America’s GDP growth is likely to slow a little in 2026 and, with inflation softening, monetary easing is likely to continue. The scale of rate cuts will vary across countries, with a large...

4th December 2025 · 23 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: shifting towards interest rate hikes?

There’s a growing debate about whether the Colombian central bank will hike rates. And several plausible triggers – from a pre-election spending spree to a bumper minimum wage hike – could tip the MPC...

2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs

The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still...

25th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile shifts right, current account deficits, Banco Master

The first round of Chile’s presidential election resulted in right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast becoming the clear front-runner in the second round due in December. Kast’s steps this week signal a...

21st November 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Nov. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Aggregate Latin American growth slowed in Q3 and we doubt that there will be a...

20th November 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Early current account warning signs in a few EMs

Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland...

17th November 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile’s election, delayed cuts in Brazil and Colombia

Chile's presidential race is entering the final straight, with the latest polls suggesting that the most likely outcome is a victory for left-wing candidate Jara in the first round, but a win for...

7th November 2025 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor

EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2025)

EM financial markets have continued to perform well in the past quarter, with currencies holding firm against the US dollar and sovereign bond spreads narrowing in many places. This has been supported...

29th October 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American economies fared poorly in Q3 and we think that headwinds ranging...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

All eyes on Argentina’s election, Mexico’s weak economy

Argentines head to the polls on Sunday in crucial mid-term elections that will determine the future of President Milei's stabilisation programme. A poor showing for his La Libertad Avanza party would...

24th October 2025 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

BanRep hawks, Colombia-US rift intensifies

The hawkish tone accompanying the Colombian central bank (BanRep)’s decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25% this week supports our view that there’s much less room for easing in Colombia...

3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Contrary to consensus expectations for growth to stabilise, we expect growth in...

29th September 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown

The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more...

19th September 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025)

EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is...

17th September 2025 · 1 min read