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How big are the contagion risks from France?

Europe Economics Update

19 October, 2026

How big are the contagion risks from France?

France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond markets and economies are lower than they were…

Andrew Kenningham

Chief Europe Economist

Chief Economist's Note

19 October, 2026

The Inflation Outlook and the Bond Market Sell-Off

The sell-off in government bond markets has eased in recent days but yields still look too high based on the inflation outlook alone. Higher energy prices will push average inflation in advanced…

Neil Shearing

Group Chief Economist

Capital Daily

19 October, 2026

Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries

We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat on Treasuries.

Thomas Mathews

Head of Markets, Asia Pacific

Commodities Weekly

16 October, 2026

Energy markets are learning to live with conflict

The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of…

Hamad Hussain

Senior Climate and Commodities Economist

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Upcoming Events

Online Event

Oct 2026

Today

15:00 BST

UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget preview - what to expect, and what it means for markets

John Healey's first Budget is being watched closely as a statement of intent for the Burnham government. But intent has to be funded, and it comes at a moment when markets are already nervous about the path of government borrowing. Join our UK and Markets teams, Thursday 22nd October, for this online briefing ahead of the statement. During this session, they will answer your questions while…

UK Drop-In: Budget day - what the Chancellor's measures mean for the economy and markets

28 October, 2026

3:00PM GMT

Online Event

Bank of Canada Drop-In: Will the BoC go as far as markets are pricing in?

28 October, 2026

5:00PM GMT

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THE CHIEF ECONOMIST'S VIEW

China Shock 2.0 is not simply a story about trade. China’s growing influence is also being felt through investment flows, technology transfer, commodity markets and the global transition to clean energy. Understanding these developments is becoming increasingly important for investors, businesses and policymakers.

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist

Read the latest Chief Economist's Note

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