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What matters now in global macro

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UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred

UK Economics Focus

28 October, 2026

UK Budget Response: Fiscal credibility preserved, but difficult decisions deferred

The Budget revealed only a small slippage in the plans to reduce the budget deficit and stabilise the debt to GDP ratio. Further slippage next year or more tax hikes are likely. Even so, this Budget doesn’t make the UK’s fiscal position look any…

Paul Dales

Chief UK Economist

Asset Allocation Update

29 October, 2026

Where to hide in equities if the AI boom turns to bust

Energy and financials have fared well in tech selloffs over recent years, but we doubt they would continue to do so if the AI boom turned to bust. Traditional defensive sectors remain the best bet in…

James Reilly

Senior Markets Economist

Capital Daily

29 October, 2026

Tech’s growing vulnerability to rising yields

Tech companies’ spending boom has arguably made them more vulnerable to borrowing costs, and they won’t get much relief from the Fed if the recent meeting is anything to go by. Our base case remains…

Thomas Mathews

Head of Markets, Asia Pacific

Emerging Europe Economics Update

28 October, 2026

Israel’s election points to political limbo

The results so far from Israel’s election point to a range of possibilities for the next government although, irrespective of who is in power, it looks like the coalition will be fragile. We don’t…

William Jackson

Chief Emerging Markets Economist

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Upcoming Events

UK Consumer Outlook - Consumers on street

Online Event

Nov 2026

In 5 days

15:00 GMT

Drop-In: UK Consumer Insights – Time to bet against consumers?

With energy prices soaring, mortgage rates rising and employment flatlining, is now the time to bet against the UK consumer? And if households do baulk, which consumer sectors will be hit the hardest and the least?In this special 20-minute online briefing announcing the launch of our new UK Consumer Insights service, our experts on the UK economy and UK consumers will discuss issues such as…

Drop in: EM Financial Risk update – where are vulnerabilities rising

12 November, 2026

4:00PM GMT

In-Person Event

In person Event: CRE Roundtable - UK and Europe Commercial Property Outlook 2027 - what to watch out for

2 December, 2026

9:00AM GMT

Capital Economics, 100 Victoria Street, London, SW1E 5JL

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THE CHIEF ECONOMIST'S VIEW

China Shock 2.0 is not simply a story about trade. China’s growing influence is also being felt through investment flows, technology transfer, commodity markets and the global transition to clean energy. Understanding these developments is becoming increasingly important for investors, businesses and policymakers.

Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist

Read the latest Chief Economist's Note

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