Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world For good reason, much of the attention around what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the US economy has centred on his proposals to jack up tariffs and clamp down on immigration. If he... 30th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note A big bang start to the Fed’s easing cycle would still need to clear a high bar This week is set to be dominated by one question: will the Federal Reserve kickstart its easing cycle with a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate cut? Market pricing on this question has been swinging... 16th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Nvidia, AI, and the bubble that’s not yet ready to burst There have been two major developments in markets over the past week. The first is the initial round of voting in France’s parliamentary election, which was won by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National... 1st July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Deficits don’t matter – until the bond market decides that they do You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno... 24th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note US economic dominance is here to stay - but it won’t translate into sustained stock market outperformance A persistent feature of the post-pandemic age has been the relative strength of the US economy and equities market. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the US continue to... 17th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note For EM economies, there’s only one election that really matters The elections that have concluded in major emerging economies over the past couple of weeks have been notable for several reasons: Mexico elected its first female president, Narendra Modi secured an... 10th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note Central banks will go their own way If there was any lingering doubt as to whether the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, they have surely been extinguished by a series of recent remarks by central bankers. Speaking at an event in... 20th May 2024 Chief Economist's Note This China overcapacity row is masking a big shift in the global imbalances story The US government’s reported plans to raise barriers on Chinese imports of green tech – including a potentially sharp rise in electric vehicle tariffs – could trigger a further ratcheting up of... 13th May 2024 Chief Economist's Note Who’s afraid of a stronger dollar? The dollar is once again sending shivers through global markets as its rise again generates fearful headlines about risks to economies large and small. Central bankers are clearly getting nervous –... 29th April 2024 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world For good reason, much of the attention around what another Donald Trump presidency would mean for the US economy has centred on his proposals to jack up tariffs and clamp down on immigration. If he... 30th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note Three big questions about the global economic outlook Last week I participated in a small roundtable with investors and economists. It was notable – if not entirely surprising – that the broad topics of conversation chimed with a lot of recent... 25th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note A big bang start to the Fed’s easing cycle would still need to clear a high bar This week is set to be dominated by one question: will the Federal Reserve kickstart its easing cycle with a 25 or 50 basis point interest rate cut? Market pricing on this question has been swinging... 16th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Nvidia, AI, and the bubble that’s not yet ready to burst There have been two major developments in markets over the past week. The first is the initial round of voting in France’s parliamentary election, which was won by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National... 1st July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Deficits don’t matter – until the bond market decides that they do You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno... 24th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note US economic dominance is here to stay - but it won’t translate into sustained stock market outperformance A persistent feature of the post-pandemic age has been the relative strength of the US economy and equities market. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the US continue to... 17th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note For EM economies, there’s only one election that really matters The elections that have concluded in major emerging economies over the past couple of weeks have been notable for several reasons: Mexico elected its first female president, Narendra Modi secured an... 10th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note Central banks will go their own way If there was any lingering doubt as to whether the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, they have surely been extinguished by a series of recent remarks by central bankers. Speaking at an event in... 20th May 2024
Chief Economist's Note This China overcapacity row is masking a big shift in the global imbalances story The US government’s reported plans to raise barriers on Chinese imports of green tech – including a potentially sharp rise in electric vehicle tariffs – could trigger a further ratcheting up of... 13th May 2024
Chief Economist's Note Who’s afraid of a stronger dollar? The dollar is once again sending shivers through global markets as its rise again generates fearful headlines about risks to economies large and small. Central bankers are clearly getting nervous –... 29th April 2024
