Chief Economist's Note Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing gives his weekly take on the big issues in the global economy and highlights key analysis and events from Capital Economics Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024 Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024 Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Nvidia, AI, and the bubble that’s not yet ready to burst There have been two major developments in markets over the past week. The first is the initial round of voting in France’s parliamentary election, which was won by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National... 1st July 2024 Chief Economist's Note Deficits don’t matter – until the bond market decides that they do You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno... 24th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note US economic dominance is here to stay - but it won’t translate into sustained stock market outperformance A persistent feature of the post-pandemic age has been the relative strength of the US economy and equities market. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the US continue to... 17th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note For EM economies, there’s only one election that really matters The elections that have concluded in major emerging economies over the past couple of weeks have been notable for several reasons: Mexico elected its first female president, Narendra Modi secured an... 10th June 2024 Chief Economist's Note Central banks will go their own way If there was any lingering doubt as to whether the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, they have surely been extinguished by a series of recent remarks by central bankers. Speaking at an event in... 20th May 2024 Chief Economist's Note This China overcapacity row is masking a big shift in the global imbalances story The US government’s reported plans to raise barriers on Chinese imports of green tech – including a potentially sharp rise in electric vehicle tariffs – could trigger a further ratcheting up of... 13th May 2024 Chief Economist's Note Who’s afraid of a stronger dollar? The dollar is once again sending shivers through global markets as its rise again generates fearful headlines about risks to economies large and small. Central bankers are clearly getting nervous –... 29th April 2024 Chief Economist's Note Don’t panic about inflation – and other learnings from an information flurry The past few weeks have brought a flurry of data and speeches from central bankers. What have we learned about the health of the global economy and the outlook for monetary policy? It’s important not... 22nd April 2024 Chief Economist's Note Israel's retaliatory strikes: Key analysis on the Middle East conflict Reports suggest that Israel has fired missiles into Iran in response to Iran’s strike on Israel last weekend. Details remain unclear, but the key questions for markets relate to the scale of the... 19th April 2024 Chief Economist's Note Overcapacity concerns open up a new front in US-China fracturing It wasn’t so long ago that markets would barely take note of a major summit or meeting between political leaders. These days, bilateral get-togethers are followed by a scouring of accompanying... 16th April 2024 Pagination Current page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 … Next
Chief Economist's Note As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow? So much for staying ‘data dependent’. While central bankers are sticking to the line that they will be guided by the incoming data, the reality is that recent data releases have been a mixed bag which... 9th September 2024
Chief Economist's Note Data still consistent with soft landing Even the perma-bears would have struggled to find much in the slew of data released over the past week that would justify recent recession fears. Admittedly, we learnt that US manufacturing production... 19th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note What slowdown scares tell us about the global economic hierarchy The economic data have softened, corporate executives are sounding the alarm over slowing sales, and policymakers are signalling that they will provide more support to the economy. This is not the US... 12th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note Recession fears, market panic – Key questions on what comes next So much for the summer lull. Stock markets are in turmoil and bond yields have plunged as fears about a US recession have taken hold. For all the challenges in gauging where economies and markets are... 5th August 2024
Chief Economist's Note UK public finances need fixing, but so do the rules that bind the Treasury This will be a big week for the UK economy. On Thursday, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet to set interest rates. Only a few months ago it had seemed that this would be... 29th July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Debate over lack of ‘fiscal space’ misses the point Elections in the UK and France over the past few days have produced radically different outcomes, with the centre-left Labour Party securing a landslide victory in the UK, but the vote in France... 8th July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Nvidia, AI, and the bubble that’s not yet ready to burst There have been two major developments in markets over the past week. The first is the initial round of voting in France’s parliamentary election, which was won by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National... 1st July 2024
Chief Economist's Note Deficits don’t matter – until the bond market decides that they do You don’t need fluent French to understand what France’s finance minister was referring to when he warned of “un scénario à la Liz Truss” if the far right wins in upcoming legislative elections. Bruno... 24th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note US economic dominance is here to stay - but it won’t translate into sustained stock market outperformance A persistent feature of the post-pandemic age has been the relative strength of the US economy and equities market. But past performance is no guarantee of future results. Will the US continue to... 17th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note For EM economies, there’s only one election that really matters The elections that have concluded in major emerging economies over the past couple of weeks have been notable for several reasons: Mexico elected its first female president, Narendra Modi secured an... 10th June 2024
Chief Economist's Note Central banks will go their own way If there was any lingering doubt as to whether the ECB could cut rates ahead of the Fed, they have surely been extinguished by a series of recent remarks by central bankers. Speaking at an event in... 20th May 2024
Chief Economist's Note This China overcapacity row is masking a big shift in the global imbalances story The US government’s reported plans to raise barriers on Chinese imports of green tech – including a potentially sharp rise in electric vehicle tariffs – could trigger a further ratcheting up of... 13th May 2024
Chief Economist's Note Who’s afraid of a stronger dollar? The dollar is once again sending shivers through global markets as its rise again generates fearful headlines about risks to economies large and small. Central bankers are clearly getting nervous –... 29th April 2024
Chief Economist's Note Don’t panic about inflation – and other learnings from an information flurry The past few weeks have brought a flurry of data and speeches from central bankers. What have we learned about the health of the global economy and the outlook for monetary policy? It’s important not... 22nd April 2024
Chief Economist's Note Israel's retaliatory strikes: Key analysis on the Middle East conflict Reports suggest that Israel has fired missiles into Iran in response to Iran’s strike on Israel last weekend. Details remain unclear, but the key questions for markets relate to the scale of the... 19th April 2024
Chief Economist's Note Overcapacity concerns open up a new front in US-China fracturing It wasn’t so long ago that markets would barely take note of a major summit or meeting between political leaders. These days, bilateral get-togethers are followed by a scouring of accompanying... 16th April 2024
