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How big are the contagion risks from France?
Europe Economics Update

How big are the contagion risks from France?

France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond markets and economies are lower than they were…

Andrew Kenningham

Chief Europe Economist
Chief Economist's Note

The Inflation Outlook and the Bond Market Sell-Off

The sell-off in government bond markets has eased in recent days but yields still look too high based on the inflation outlook alone. Higher energy prices will push average inflation in advanced…

Neil Shearing

Group Chief Economist
Capital Daily

Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries

We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat on Treasuries.

Thomas Mathews

Head of Markets, Asia Pacific

Commodities Weekly

Energy markets are learning to live with conflict

The escalation in strikes across the Middle East highlights the upside risks to oil prices. But oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have proved to be relatively resilient, and the expansion of…

Hamad Hussain

Senior Climate and Commodities Economist

Events and podcasts

Live briefings with our economists, recordings you can watch back, and our podcast.

Coming up

All events and podcasts
commercial drop-in
On demand
19
Oct 2026
Today
15:00 BST

Drop-In: Global commercial real estate outlook

The macro and market backdrop continues to unsettle global commercial property. In this concise online briefing on Monday 19th October, our Commercial Real Estate team talked through their latest forecasts and answered your questions while they addressed key issues, including:What the Iran war means for property values and investment activityHow AI is reshaping demand across sectorsWhich sectors…

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Singapore skyline
In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Singapore

9:00AM BST

Guoco Midtown Network Hub Level 2

Tel aviv
Online Event

Drop-In: Israel's election - the end of the Netanyahu era?

2:00PM BST
Hong Kong skyline with skyscraper
In-Person Event

In-Person Event: China Shock 2.0 - Hong Kong

9:00AM BST

The Executive Centre, No, 28 Stanley St, Central, Hong Kong

uk roundtable 14th oct
Online Event

UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget preview - what to expect, and what it means for markets

3:00PM BST
uk budget 22nd oct
Online Event

UK Drop-In: Budget day - what the Chancellor's measures mean for the economy and markets

3:00PM GMT
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Watch and listen anytime

Recordings of our online events and podcasts are available to watch and listen at any time.

Podcast

China's future: Deflation, Trade Tensions and Alternative Scenarios

Podcast

Bond Market Turbulence, France's Fiscal Reckoning and Europe's China Dilemma
SouthAfricaDropin JA
On demand

Africa Drop-In: A look ahead to South Africa’s latest fiscal event

1:00PM BST

Podcast

Energy shock, China shock and the global economy
Gbl China Shock 2.0
On demand

Drop-In: China Shock 2.0 and the return of global imbalances

3:00PM BST
globaldropin
On demand

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – How long can the resilience last?

3:00PM BST
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Latest analysis

The latest publications from our team, plus timely notes from our Chief Economist on the issues moving markets.

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Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys underscore policy dilemma

The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show renewed trade tensions have disrupted the recovery, with a stark contrast in sentiment between...

Bradley Saunders

North America Economist
Red down trend graph

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks?

EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities –...

Liam Peach

Senior Emerging Markets Economist
Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026)

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Sep. 2026)

The easing in core price pressures back to a roughly target-consistent rate, paired with recent weak Labour Force Surveys, should keep the Bank of...

Bradley Saunders

North America Economist
Bank Indonesia to hike on Wednesday to support rupiah

Asia Economics Update

Bank Indonesia to hike on Wednesday to support rupiah

The further sell-off today in Indonesia’s financial markets following MSCI’s latest threat to downgrade the country’s stock market means that a 25bp...

Jason Tuvey

Deputy Chief Emerging Markets Economist
How big are the contagion risks from France?

Europe Economics Update

How big are the contagion risks from France?

France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors...

Andrew Kenningham

Chief Europe Economist
Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries

Capital Daily

Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries

We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market...

Thomas Mathews

Head of Markets, Asia Pacific

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026)

China Rapid Response

China GDP (Q3) & Activity (Sep. 2026)

The improvement in official GDP growth last quarter is at odds with the slowdown shown by our China Activity Proxy (CAP). But the September data do...

Nguyen Hoang Nam

China Economist
Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Higher neutral rate need not prompt more tightening

The evidence that the neutral rate of interest has continued to rise is mixed. And with excess demand now clearly diminishing, we’re not convinced...

Marcel Thieliant

Head of Asia-Pacific
Inflation risks show little sign of abating

US Economics Weekly

Inflation risks show little sign of abating

The September CPI and PPI data delivered a decidedly “discouraging” message for the Fed, to use Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee’s words, with...

Thomas Ryan

Senior North America Economist

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