Bonds

financial markets

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Treasury yields to drift higher as Fed underwhelms

We expect the Fed to ease by less than investors are currently discounting. That, in turn, informs our forecast for the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.25% by the end of 2026. We think the outlook for government bonds elsewhere are a mixed bag: for example, we forecast 10-year yields to rise over that same period in France, Italy and Japan, but fall in the UK, Sweden, Canada and New Zealand.

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