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While spreads in the euro-zone have narrowed further recently, nearing multi-year lows, this is mainly because underlying German Bund yields have risen. Indeed, public finances in some euro-zone countries remain concerning, and rising rates elsewhere may …
13th June 2025
At the time of writing, global markets were in a “risk-off” mood after Israel’s strikes on Iran. We think there are three key initial points to make. First, as is almost always the case when Middle East tensions escalate, the key channel through which …
The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced than we’d previously thought (rather than skewed to the …
President Trump’s latest tariff threats, combined with some softer US price and employment data, has sent the US dollar to its lowest level, in aggregate, in more than three years. There are still some factors that point to a near-term rebound, but that …
12th June 2025
President Trump’s recent suggestion that he may yet ratchet US tariffs higher highlights how much uncertainty there still is around both where tariff rates will eventually settle and the US policy outlook more broadly. That said, our sense is that markets …
Yet another downside US CPI surprise gave only a small boost to Treasuries, probably because tariff-driven price hikes still look imminent. That said, these price hikes look discounted in markets, so we don’t expect much upwards pressure on Treasury …
11th June 2025
Colombia’s fiscal problems have returned to the spotlight amid rumours that the government will suspend the fiscal rule. This has triggered a sell-off in the bond market, but it doesn’t look like the deterioration in the fiscal situation has been fully …
10th June 2025
US-China trade negotiations ongoing in London this week have the potential to have a bearing on financial markets, perhaps especially in China. We think there are two key questions to consider. First, how much of a boost could an eventual “deal” – or …
With one month to go until the “pause” of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” is, at least in principle, set to expire, market participants continue to take a pretty relaxed view of the risks around US trade policy. That probably makes sense, …
9th June 2025
May’s Employment Report in the US ought to assuage concerns about the economy after some softer data earlier this week. But even if growth there holds up over the rest of the year, investors’ current outlook suggest there may be only limited upside for …
6th June 2025
While the ECB cut its policy rate today, as widely expected, President Lagarde’s accompanying comments tilted hawkish and have given interest rate expectations and the euro a boost. Our view remains that the ECB will deliver at least one more rate cut …
5th June 2025
India’s stock market has fared well this quarter, outperforming other emerging market equities in aggregate, but we doubt this bout of outperformance will last in the near term. The good times seem to be back for India’s stock market, after a few months …
We doubt Section 899 of the One Big Beautiful Bill that passed the House of Representatives in May will have the big negative effects on US asset markets that some seem to fear, even if it remains largely untouched in the Senate. To re-cap, Section 899 …
4th June 2025
Below-target inflation in the euro-zone and deflation in Switzerland bring back memories of the 2010s, but the drivers of low inflation are fundamentally different this time and we don’t see much scope for government bond yields to fall. Data released …
3rd June 2025
To some extent, the persistent underperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities probably reflects lingering concerns about the effects of Donald Trump’s policies on the economy. But even if fears of a recession fade, we doubt US SC equities will fare better …
2nd June 2025
Most emerging market equities have held up surprisingly well of late, and in fact broadly outperformed global equities. But we think further outperformance is unlikely, especially for commodity exporters. Emerging market (EM) equities have been remarkably …
30th May 2025
We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500 . But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US, if perhaps less significantly than they did earlier …
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. It’s not surprising that China’s equity markets have been among the most volatile globally over the past day or so , …
Despite a positive initial reaction in global stock markets to yesterday’s ruling by the US Court of International Trade (CIT), there is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs on US imports. So a really big boost to equities may not be on the …
29th May 2025
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
The recent substantial volatility in global sovereign bond markets hasn’t altered our view that in most cases 10-year government bond yields will end this year near, or below, their current levels. We also think corporate bonds will continue to do quite …
Despite all of the debt and deficit news out of the US, the spotlight in ultra-long bond markets has increasingly been focused on Japan. The surge in yields there last week seems to have sparked a global sell-off, and the subsequent plan from Japan’s …
28th May 2025
The 10-year Treasury term premium, as estimated by ACM , rose to a more-than-decade high of ~0.9% last week amid renewed concerns about US fiscal policy. But while the premium remains far below the ~4% it topped in the early 1990s, for example, we doubt …
27th May 2025
We think the yields of Japanese government bonds will continue to rise, but because of BoJ hikes rather than concerns about fiscal sustainability. Fragile bond market sentiment hasn’t been limited to the US lately: a sharp rise in yields in Japan has …
23rd May 2025
The passage of Donald Trump’s ‘one, big beautiful bill’ through the House of Representatives today has done little to calm nerves in the bond market, which had already been frayed by Moody’s recent decision to downgrade the US’ sovereign credit rating and …
22nd May 2025
Despite the latest setback in the S&P 500, we are revising back up our end-2025 forecast for the index in response to the de-escalation of the trade war albeit to a lower level of 6,250 than the projection of 7,000 we had before “Liberation Day”. We are …
Debate over the end of US equity exceptionalism had quietened over the past month amid a historic rally, but with US assets selling off today debate may reignite. Our sense is that US stocks will hold up well against their peers over the rest of the year. …
21st May 2025
We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. Admittedly, there has been a sizeable effect on the share prices of US energy companies in general, which is …
20th May 2025
The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem so far to have made much of a market splash. …
19th May 2025
There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the fact that investors have more to worry about than just …
16th May 2025
One month on from the peak of the post-“Liberation Day” market turmoil, calm has largely returned and most key asset markets have recovered much, or all, of the ground lost in the days following 2 nd April. Indeed, core money markets never looked …
15th May 2025
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. European markets have had a strong start to the year, and we are …
We think the recent “bear flattening” of the US Treasury yield curve has a bit further to run. The story in the Treasury market over the past few weeks has generally been one of bear flattening (short-end yields rising by more than long-end ones) as …
The rolling back of tariffs has coincided with a recovery in big tech in the US and China. (See Chart 1.) Their dual rally is something new since Donald Trump returned to the White House. We think there’s a good chance it will continue, despite the US …
14th May 2025
Despite the US-China truce, we still think inflationary pressures will prompt the Fed to stay pat for a while yet. But we doubt the 10-year Treasury yield will rise much more from here, even though investors are still pricing in rate cuts. That’s because …
13th May 2025
The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff rate on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the highest since the 1930s, it is unlikely to cause a …
We don’t foresee further common-currency outperformance of MSCI’s UK Index vis-à-vis its USA Index, which has largely been a function of their compositions and the strength of cable since Donald Trump’s return to the White House . This is because we …
Global Trade Stress Monitor …
Just over a month ago, we ditched our long-held forecast that the S&P 500 would end this year at 7,000 , and revised it all the way down to 5,500. While that looks like it might have been a mistake, we aren’t inclined to re-adopt such a positive view. We …
12th May 2025
The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has much higher tariffs on China than on other countries and …
Thanks to continued optimism over prospective trade deals to reduce US tariff rates, asset markets have generally recouped most of their losses after the 2 nd April tariff announcement. That said, we think that the boost from further trade negotiation …
9th May 2025
Even though the 10-year Treasury yield is close to where it was before “Liberation Day”, measures of term premia remain elevated. At face value, that suggests that the yield could fall quite a bit further, but we suspect any unwind of the recent increase …
8th May 2025
We still think investors are expecting too many Fed cuts over the remainder of this year, and our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will strengthen. The Fed struck a very cautious tone in Wednesday’s policy statement, and …
We expect government bonds in China to continue to perform well against a backdrop of looser monetary policy, but suspect its currency won’t depreciate as much against the greenback as we had previously envisaged. Meanwhile, we have mixed feelings about …
7th May 2025
We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. At the time of writing the breakneck rally in Asian currencies vs. the US dollar seemed to have come to a screaming …
6th May 2025
The stronger-than-expected April US Employment Report published today leaves us comfortable with our central scenario that the trade war won’t be enough to tip the US economy into recession. So, we think the Fed will keep its focus on inflation and stand …
2nd May 2025
Paul Samuelson famously quipped in 1966 that the stock market had predicted nine of the last five recessions in the US. We suspect it just sent another false signal about an economic downturn. We can quibble over whether we just had a bear market. On a …
Despite the Bank of Japan’s dovish tone today we think it won’t be long before JGB yields start to rise again. And even though concerns about Japanese capital repatriation have seemingly been back on investors’ minds lately, we don’t think higher JGB …
1st May 2025
We think the recent outperformance of euro-zone equities over US ones has run its course. The eight-day winning streak in the S&P 500 may break today, after the market opened down over 1% on news that the US economy unexpectedly contracted in Q1 , on …
30th April 2025
