The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. Dubious disinflation November’s CPI report was the most dubious. A lack of data collection due to the shutdown …
19th December 2025
Today’s decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise it key policy rate by another 25bp has done nothing to shore up the yen, which has fallen by another ~1% against the US dollar. Admittedly, the central bank’s decision was widely anticipated. But the …
Housing activity firms slightly, though still weak Existing home sales rose to a nine-month high of 4.13m annualised in November and should climb further in the coming months, as deals agreed when borrowing costs fell in the third quarter continue to get …
In our new UK Economic Outlook we outlined the two key developments that we think will define 2026, namely that 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target and that the Bank of England will cut interest rates further than most expect, …
Labour shortages continue to ease The record decline in the population in the third quarter (see here ) was largely due to a slump in international students at the start of the academic year, but temporary worker numbers also declined at a stronger pace …
The final major week of the year in macro is in the books. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins The Weekly Briefing to explain why the latest US inflation report should be taken with a “bucketful of salt,” while reviewing the year-end moves from the …
Temporary drivers muddy the picture The sizeable fall in core retail sales in October chimes with weak consumer confidence, although large temporary drivers in either direction are partly to blame. While the solid advance estimate for November is …
The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. To some extent these changes are justified because the economy has been more resilient and recent inflation data have been higher …
This final Commodities Weekly of the year takes stock of our forecasting record in 2025, and summarises our key calls for 2026. Our forecasts for energy prices to fall in 2025 have proved pleasingly accurate. As shown in Chart 1, our end-2025 Brent oil …
Colombia: rate hikes now a real possibility Tonight’s central bank meeting in Colombia will be a close call between a hold and a 25bp hike. In a recent note , we flagged the growing risk of rate hikes in Colombia and warned that a few factors could act as …
MNB opens the door to a Q1 rate cut The decision by the Hungarian central bank to leave its base rate on hold, at 6.50%, for a 15 th consecutive meeting this week was correctly predicted by all 13 analysts polled by LSEG (including ourselves). But there …
US steps up support for key minerals railroad Angola secured additional financing from the US and other partners this week as it looks to press ahead with the Lobito rail project underlining the Trump administration’s transactional approach to the region …
Drop in inflation no barrier to tightening With the outcome of today’s meeting no great surprise, the Bank of Japan used it to lock in expectations that further policy rate increases will follow . One potential obstacle is an imminent fall in inflation. …
CBR delivers another 50bp cut, cautious easing to continue The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) cut its policy rate by 50bp today, to 16.00%, as was expected by most analysts, and further monetary easing is likely next year. That said, with the disinflation …
Steady growth, easing cycles nearing an end This week we published our quarterly Asia Economic Outlook , which sets out our economic and financial market forecasts for the upcoming year. Recent developments have been broadly encouraging, prompting us to …
But fiscal stance should turn supportive again soon Both our China Activity Proxy and official activity data suggest that China’s growth has been slowing in recent months. That’s likely due in large part to the sharp pullback in fiscal spending since …
In our view, the AI bubble in emerging Market (EM) equities, which drove much of this year’s rally, hasn’t burst yet and could inflate further next year. And while large valuation gaps vis-à-vis the US suggest that the AI bubble in EMs is smaller, we …
When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect the Bank to ultimately raise rates to 1.75% in 2027. The …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Too little too late for both retailers and the Chancellor November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too …
Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight three important events for India economy-watchers …
BoJ hikes as expected, more tightening to follow The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging suggests …
Monetary policy to remain loose for a while Yesterday, we learnt that New Zealand’s GDP expanded by a solid 1.1% q/q in Q3, well above the RBNZ’s forecast for a 0.4% rise. As a result, financial markets believe that the Bank will be normalising policy …
Underlying price pressures still elevated With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates further than most …
Banxico shifting to a stop-start easing cycle Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp rate cut, to 7.00%, today but its communications suggest that it will likely pause at the next meeting in February. We expect a more stop-start easing …
18th December 2025
Overview – We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on consumption growth, we expect GDP growth to be …
The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the world, it won’t help the unease evident in the long end …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) …
The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes early next year look extremely unlikely, we think cuts …
Overview – The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower immigration will put downward pressure on …
BLS reports hard-to-believe slump in inflation in shutdown-affected release According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of …
The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in February is possible and that rates will fall to 3.00% in …
CNB’s next move likely to be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s next move will …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will strengthen, …
More upbeat forecasts but no change in messaging Today’s ECB press release suggests that the strength of recent economic data has not changed policymakers’ assessment of the monetary policy outlook. Changes in interest rates early next year look extremely …
Oil price drop has further to run in 2026 The steady decline in oil prices over the course of this year continued this week, with Brent dropping to its lowest level since early 2021. And we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major …
The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the accompanying drop in temporary worker numbers helps to …
EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. There are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few …
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Disagreements at the BoE, but cuts in 2026 to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall …
Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026. 1) Major question marks over OPEC+ policy. While a …
Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year Treasury yield will be broadly unchanged in 2027, which is …
(Very) slow and steady Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that any further rate cuts will be very gradual. We are forecasting the next cut to come in March but the risks are skewed …
Riksbank increasingly optimistic, but rate hikes a year away While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater …
CBC in no rush to cut Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, with growth likely to remain strong and inflation set to stay low, policy settings look set to be left unchanged throughout 2026-27. The decision …
The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is becoming increasingly …
Upside surprise in GDP won’t alter the rates outlook Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a while to come. …
17th December 2025
While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If sentiment doesn’t pick-up in early 2026, that would pose a …
Rental growth has ended the year on a strong note, but with yields stable total returns are beginning to ease from their recent level of around 8% y/y. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total returns of just …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) …
