Labour market weak, but stable The better-than-expected 119,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September should have further reduced the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates again next month. Admittedly, revisions subtracted a cumulative 33,000 …
20th November 2025
As it has dropped plans for “Frexit”, scaled back its tax and spending promises and made overtures to business, the RN is worrying investors less than it did in the past. However, it is no more likely than other parties to put France’s public finances on …
Aggregate Latin American growth slowed in Q3 and we doubt that there will be a pronounced pick-up in the coming quarters. And our growth GDP forecasts for the next couple of years lie below the consensus. The inflation picture has improved, with headline …
Unconfirmed media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security guarantees might hold back Ukraine’s …
Recent earnings reports give cause for optimism about the health of the AI equity market rally, in our view, and we think it has further to run. Much of investors’ hopes for the faltering AI rally had seemingly been pinned on Nvidia’s profit result this …
“Many” Fed participants all-but rule out a December rate cut The minutes of the FOMC meeting that concluded on 29 th October were unusually blunt, warning that “many” participants thought it would be appropriate to leave rates unchanged for the rest of …
19th November 2025
S&P 500 ‘cyclical’ stocks have underperformed ‘defensive’ ones markedly over the past couple of weeks, even after stripping away the influence of tech firms. We think there is scope for that to reverse even without renewed enthusiasm over AI. One feature …
Our View: The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with Poland a clear outperformer, while other parts of CEE struggled and momentum in Russia continued to wane. We think that this divergence will continue over …
Lower net domestic migration has substituted in for the earlier supply glut as the main factor putting downward pressure on house prices in the Sun Belt’s previously red-hot metros. We doubt the region’s recent underperformance will last, however, as …
This Focus introduces a new tool in our oil analysis toolkit that allows us to examine and highlight how oil traders’ market positioning changes over time. This new tool will be particularly useful during bouts of geopolitical uncertainty and risks to …
Next year, inflation is likely to remain higher in Spain and Germany than in Italy and France . But unlike in the 2000s, inflation differentials are not currently a sign that unsustainable imbalances are building up. Headline inflation in the euro-zone …
While the recent pace of transactions and house price growth is unlikely to be sustained over the coming months, we doubt it will slow by as much as some sentiment indicators suggest. But by crimping households’ disposable income, our view that the …
Trade deficit narrows as gold imports drop back Swings in gold trade were once more a key driver of movements in the trade balance in August, resulting in a $18.6bn narrowing in the deficit to $59.6bn. The shutdown-delayed August International Trade …
EM growth held up well in Q3, although headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour markets and (for some) lower commodity prices will drag growth down over the coming year. Most of our 2026 GDP growth forecasts lie below the consensus. This is still a …
The latest activity data suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth slowed a touch in Q3, to around 0.5% q/q, and we expect it to remain around this rate over the coming quarters, helped by improved terms of trade as well as low inflation and looser monetary …
Euro-zone inflation has hovered close to or above the 2% target for over a year, but we think it will fall to about 1.5% in January and average just 1.3% in 2026. Data released this morning confirmed that headline inflation edged down from 2.2% in …
This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 1) How will AI affect demand for electricity? We have discussed the implications of the AI …
Taiwan’s economy is booming and this has been driven almost entirely by exports, whereas domestic demand, and especially consumer spending, has been sluggish. That’s because faster wage increases in the electronics sector have benefited only a small share …
Soft core inflation makes new inflation target attainable Although headline inflation in South Africa rose, to 3.6% y/y, last month, the decline in core inflation, to 3.1% y/y, is likely to give policymakers at the Reserve Bank confidence that they can …
BI holds, finance minister invited to Board meetings Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a second consecutive meeting but the accompanying communications remained dovish and we still think there’s scope for further …
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q4 2025) …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3.00pm GMT today to assess what the upcoming Budget will mean for the economy, housing and financial markets. (Register here .) It’s …
Concerns that new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will drastically reduce immigration inflows seem overdone. But we suspect that the increase in immigration inflows over the past decade will come to a halt at a time when the population is shrinking at an …
Headline inflation in India has fallen to a multi-decade low, but core inflation is currently at its highest in 18 months. But even if the economy continues to perform well as we expect, low household inflation expectations, falling gold prices and cuts …
The recent plunge in US tech stocks seems partly due to concern about their valuations which, by some metrics, had looked their most stretched since the “dotcom bubble”. This Update argues that those valuations aren’t as elevated as they might seem, and …
We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to close out its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its meeting ending on 26 th November. Our sense is that the Bank will want to take out a final bit of insurance to shore up the fragile economic recovery. Markets …
Wage growth not as sticky as it seems Although wage growth in Australia held steady last quarter, underlying momentum appears to have softened a touch. At the margin, that supports our view that the RBA will resume its easing cycle in H2 2026. The 0.8% …
House prices rise for the first time in a year October’s housing data were broadly positive, with sales and prices both up on the month. We expect falling starts and a lower path for the Bank’s policy rate than markets are pricing in to drive a more …
18th November 2025
Strength in domestic demand will keep BanRep hawkish The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing cycle …
Overview – We expect global inflation to hover around 2.5% in the year ahead but there will be significant differences between economies. Goods inflation has a bit further to rise in the US which, coupled with elevated services inflation, will keep the …
The AI boom that has been driving the stock market for several years is now clearly evident in economic activity too. In particular, we suspect that AI explains most of the pick-up in ICT sector growth in the first half of this year, which added an …
How the rollout of AI is affecting sectors in the S&P 500 The boost AI has given to the US stock market since the launch of ChatGPT has been so strong that the S&P 500 would currently be closer to 5,000 without it. It’s therefore hardly surprising that …
It is still early days in the roll-out of AI but the data available at this stage suggest that there is a big variation in its usage between European economies. Firms in the Nordics and Benelux are generally far more likely to be using AI than those in …
MNB on hold as fiscal risks mount The Hungarian central bank (MNB) left its base rate on hold, at 6.50% as expected today, and with pre-election fiscal loosening on the cards, the monetary easing cycle looks like it may stay paused for longer than we …
Contraction in GDP strengthens the case for December rate cut The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in …
After a fairly quiet 2025, the EM electoral calendar looks busy again in 2026. The run-up to votes could add to fiscal strains in Brazil, Colombia and Hungary. Meanwhile, there is a risk of (potentially violent) protests accompanying elections in …
Recently we held a series of roundtable discussions with clients in our London office about the outlook for commercial real estate in 2026 and beyond. This note shares our answers to some of the most interesting questions raised, covering the potential …
Asia-Pacific all-property capital value declines slowed further with Q3 down just 1.1% y/y. Yet we expect the recovery to be modest, constrained by high risk-free rates and limited rental growth. Australia’s retail and industrial sectors and Korea’s …
RBA in no rush to resume rate cuts The minutes of the RBA’s November meeting reinforce the notion that the Bank will remain in wait and watch mode in the near term. While we still expect it to cut rates by another 50bp late next year, risks are tilted …
Brazil’s monetary policy stance is extremely tight – the policy rate is at its highest level since the mid-2000s. With GDP growth likely to disappoint and inflation softening, there should be ample scope for interest rates to come down when the easing …
17th November 2025
Assuming it is implemented soon, the deal to lower US tariffs on Switzerland from 39% to 15% would leave Swiss exporters paying the lowest US average tariff rate of any major economy, at around 7%. Even if the 14% appreciation of the franc against the …
Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland. That could make them more vulnerable to a bout of risk …
Some encouraging signs despite upside surprise The modest upside surprise to headline inflation in October was largely due to one-off factors, whereas the smaller average monthly gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median lends some support to our view that the Bank …
The questions that come up most often in client meetings tend to offer a good barometer of the issues preoccupying investors. Over the course of this year, the focus has shifted markedly. The first half was dominated by trade tensions and tariff risks; …
Strongest net lending to CRE since August 2023 driven by refinancing Outstanding CRE debt held by commercial banks climbed to $2.46trn in October, with monthly net lending totalling $10bn. That was the strongest monthly rise since August 2023. The …
The surprising softness in Polish inflation this year can be explained partly by lower energy inflation, but also by steep declines in the prices of some durable goods. The latter probably won’t last. And there are strong medium-term inflation pressures …
A growing divergence in views on the trajectory of oil demand over the next 25 years – and whether demand will even reach a peak during this period – partly reflects the reduction in political support for the energy transition. While the balance of risks …
