Rate hike highlights Pakistan’s vulnerability to crisis The decision by Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) to raise interest rates by 100bps (to 11.5%) highlights the country’s vulnerability to the crisis in the Middle East and the surge in global energy …
27th April 2026
A renewed rise in homebuilding construction costs due to the jump in energy prices since the start of the Iran war will only further constrain homebuilders’ profits and housing starts. This poses some downside risk to the already modest recovery in starts …
If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to keep “looking through” the crisis. The widespread …
Taiwan’s economy has boomed over the past couple of years on the back of strong AI-related exports, whereas household consumption has struggled. But there are signs that the economy is becoming less lop-sided, with strong wage growth and state cash …
This Weekly Roundup highlights our analysis of Kevin Warsh's reform plans, your FAQ about private credit, a look at how earnings expectations are driving US equities, insight into the challenges and opportunities for Israel from AI and more. 1. The …
24th April 2026
But risks will grow if the conflict drags on The National Development and Reform Commission lowered China’s retail fuel price caps on Tuesday. The NDRC adjusts the caps every 10 days, and this move simply mirrored the recent pullback in global prices. But …
Drought and Strait crisis threaten crop yields The 12% m/m jump in energy CPI took the headlines in March’s report . But also of note was the 0.5% rise in the price of food purchased from stores, which sent the annual rate back up to 4.4%, from 4.1%. …
The data this week brought good news, with the 1.7% m/m rise in retail sales stronger than looked likely based on the surge in gasoline prices alone. Control group sales rose by a strong 0.7% (see here ), supported by gains in discretionary categories. …
The Iran conflict is approaching its third month, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and oil is back above $100 per barrel. How safe is the assumption that this will all be resolved soon, and what happens to commodity prices, growth and inflation if it …
A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. US tech sectors have jumped back into the driving seat this …
SARB well placed to resist interest rate hikes SARB Governor Kganyago’s comments this week reaffirmed the growing risks of interest rate hikes if the Middle East conflict remains unresolved. For now, though, a high policy rate and a strong external …
Tariffs here to stay Meetings in Mexico this week between US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the Mexican government have shed more light on the key issues shaping the upcoming USMCA review. For Mexico, the priority areas appear to be automotive, …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . The net effect of the stream of data released this week will probably lead to some policymakers at the Bank of England worrying more about the upside risks to inflation than the downside …
Gasoline price surge appears to have stopped recovery in its tracks The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than we expected, but the bigger news is that the flash estimate points to only a 0.6% rise in retail sales …
Data released this week suggests that the war in Iran could hit the euro-zone economy harder than we currently forecast. Consumer confidence , the Composite PMI and the ZEW index for the euro-zone all fell sharply in April, to levels way below their long …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Despite statements made by officials at the end of last week and ceasefire extension s , traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. Against this backdrop, the …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Good first steps from Tisza The announcements of key cabinet positions from Hungary’s incoming Tisza government this week were positive. These included András Kármán as finance minister …
Will Pakistan follow the BSP by hiking rates? The decision by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to raise interest rates by 25bp, to 4.50%, on Thursday came in response to the jump in inflation to 4.1% y/y in March, taking it slightly above the central …
MPC minutes reveal where concerns lie The MPC minutes of the RBI’s April meeting – in which the repo rate was left unchanged at 5.25% – provide some clarity on where concerns emanating from the energy price shock lie. While most committee members noted …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . The external trade data for March showed that the more favourable treatment of domestic producers when it comes to electric vehicle subsidies seems to be paying off as imports of motor …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. All of our coverage of the macro and market implications of the Middle East conflict can be found here . Retail’s bumper start to the year won’t last The surprisingly strong 0.7% …
RBA may have to hike more aggressively According to the flash PMIs released yesterday, Australia’s composite output index rose from 46.6 in March to 50.1 in April, reversing more than half of the previous month’s losses. The rebound was driven entirely a …
Core inflation remains firm Higher energy prices provided only a modest boost to headline inflation in the context of price controls. However, with underlying inflation remaining firm, there continues to be a strong case for the Bank of Japan to resume …
Bank won’t raise rates next week but will deliver some tough talk So we see little chance of markets pricing out in the near term the chance of rate hikes Based on the balance of potential outcomes, we still think current market pricing is overdone We …
23rd April 2026
The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht criteria and the strains in relations with Europe …
The UK entered 2026 already facing a challenging economic backdrop. Since then, the Iran conflict has only added fresh uncertainty, while the outcome of May’s local elections is bound to raise new questions around who will drive UK government policy. …
ECB will leave rates unchanged next week and provide little new guidance. Our base case is that that the ECB leaves interest rates on hold this year. But modest “insurance hikes” are possible, especially if energy prices rise further. The ECB is not …
The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key driver in financial markets – in other words, until there is …
US Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) …
Rapid advances in AI capabilities will reshape Israel’s cybersecurity sector, with significant macro implications given that cyber software exports account for around 3% of GDP. AI will likely increase both the scale of cyber threats and the demand for …
Commercial real estate construction costs are already showing signs of rising due to the Iran war. While this will weigh on profitability of new projects, the impact will vary by sector, with retail and hospitality’s greater reliance on glass and …
All of our coverage on the Middle East conflict can be found here . Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week after Iran refused to attend another round of talks with the US in Islamabad. Divisions within the Iranian regime are …
Fed on hold for now; statement is likely to lean slightly more hawkish Fed communications unlikely to move markets with Warsh transition looming If confirmed, Warsh will try to deliver the largest set of Fed reforms since Bernanke The FOMC will leave the …
Inflation falls, but rising energy prices to keep Banxico on the sidelines in May The small fall in Mexican inflation, to 4.5% y/y, in the first half of April was driven by easing underlying price pressures and will be welcomed by the central bank. That’s …
The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in inflation after the start of the war in Ukraine. The economic …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Iran war is so far boosting inflation by much more than it’s weakening activity April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from …
Iran conflict hitting activity, boosting price pressures The sharp fall in the PMI activity indices in April suggests at face value that the Iran conflict may have more of chilling effect on activity than we have been assuming, while the increases in the …
This Update answers the questions on the Iran war and the impact on emerging markets that we have received most frequently from clients in meetings, through our platform and in our online briefings (watch on demand here ). The war will lead to sharp falls …
BSP hikes as inflation fears outweigh growth concerns The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) hiked interest rates today, by 25bp to 4.50%, as concerns about the inflation outlook in the wake of the jump in the headline rate in March outweighed …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. All of our coverage of the macro and market implications of the Middle East conflict can be found here . Borrowing undershooting, but impact from energy price shock still to …
Korea’s economy rebounded strongly in the first quarter of the year, on the back of very strong demand for semiconductors. And while strong exports and policy support are likely to support growth this year, the economy is still likely to be hit hard by …
March’s price data were pleasing but rising inflation expectations will elicit concern First-quarter GDP growth looks to have been stronger than previously feared Bank will hold again but show increased willingness to hike The improved growth backdrop and …
22nd April 2026
The Iran conflict has increased uncertainty and pushed up long-term interest rates, both of which will weigh on investment activity over the next few months. But property yields saw no rise in March, and assuming the conflict is short-lived we expect the …
The main reason why the yields of long-dated Treasuries haven’t dropped all the way back to their levels before the start of the Iran war is a major reassessment of the prospects for Fed policy. And with investors now pricing in a path for the federal …
Slump in confidence highlights risks to consumption After a big drop in March, euro-zone consumer confidence fell again in April and reached its lowest level since late 2022, at a time when household consumption was declining. For now we suspect that …
We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here .) This Update provides answers to some of the questions that we received. The key point is that …
The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous energy price shocks – the country is now experiencing a …
