The US appears to have backed away from military intervention to support protestors in Iran, helping oil prices to fall today. But the situation remains extremely fragile. Any near-term disruption to Iranian oil output from the current turmoil could be significant – and have a bigger impact than events in Venezuela. Longer-term, were Iran to seek rapprochement with the West, it could set the grounds for an economic recovery and also have major geopolitical ramifications.
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