Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ hikes, Saudi banks go abroad, Trump’s metals tariffs

OPEC+ opted to stick to a faster pace of oil output increases in July, and Saudi Arabia is now pushing for the group to continue this through to Q4. While this will lift oil GDP growth, the non-oil...

5th June 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: GCC-ASEAN-China summit, Saudi’s shrinking trade surplus

The GCC-ASEAN-China summit this week contained a lot of platitudes about boosting trade and investment between China and the Gulf. But it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment...

29th May 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Iran, Egypt’s MPR, Morocco secures UAE investment

Rumours that Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear facilities suggest that conflict in the region could escalate. But there are reasons to think that the fallout for the oil market, and therefore the...

22nd May 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US

President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations...

15th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+ goes bold, Trump heads to the Gulf

OPEC+’s decision to speed up the pace of oil output increases will help the Gulf members to recapture market share over the next few years, while also providing a boost to headline GDP growth...

8th May 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil policy shift, Vision 2030 progress

Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia may be preparing for a return to an oil policy in which it raises output more quickly in order to recapture market share. While that might lift oil revenues, it won't...

1st May 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s new budget, Saudi fiscal tightening & real estate

Egypt’s draft FY2025/26 Budget reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal austerity which should put the public debt-to-GDP ratio on a downwards path. Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia’s government...

24th April 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: OPEC+, Saudi-US nuclear talks, Egypt-Qatar investment

OPEC+’s new compensatory cuts appear to a sign of the larger Gulf states seeking to regain market share from the group’s overproducers. But a renewed fall in oil prices could derail these plans...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

How might the Gulf respond to the slip in oil prices?

President Trump’s tariffs and OPEC+’s surprise oil output hike has sent oil prices tumbling over the past two weeks and, despite a recovery yesterday, are now below breakeven fiscal and external...

10th April 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: MENA and the Trump trade war, Saudi balance of payments

President Trump’s tariff announcements on Wednesday evening mean that much of the Middle East and North Africa is subject to a 10% tariff, although Jordan is more vulnerable given its greater...

3rd April 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s budget laid out, Saudi spending cuts

Egypt’s FY2025/26 Budget outlined that the overall budget deficit will remain large, but that’s due to high interest payments. The government is committed to continuing to run a large primary surplus...

27th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends

Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere...

20th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s policy shift one year on

Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be...

13th March 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Could Saudi renege on OPEC+ plan as fiscal woes emerge?

Saudi Arabia agreed with the rest of OPEC+ to proceed with increases in oil output from April, but the slide in oil prices and the news that Aramco will cut its dividend payment will test the Kingdom...

6th March 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Tunisia’s central bank, Egypt and benefits of the policy shift

Tunisia’s President Saied has renewed his siege on the country’s central bank and seems set on having the state take control over its responsibilities, which adds to our concerns about the risk of a...

27th February 2025 · 6 mins read