Strait traffic, Saudi’s fiscal challenge, Morocco GDP

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to pick up and contributed to a further dip in oil prices over the past week, which feeds into our view that Saudi Arabia won't provide significant fiscal stimulus to support its recovery. Elsewhere, GDP figures from Morocco showed that its economy picked up in Q1 and we think growth could reach 5% over the next couple of years as it continues to integrate into European supply chains. Meanwhile, the IMF echoed our positive view on the policy response from Egypt to the energy shock. The central bank will leave interest rates unchanged next week, but a turn to rate cuts seems likely later in the year.