Event Commodities Drop-In: Oil, copper and global macro drivers 16th July 2025, 3:00PM BST From OPEC+ pumping in ever-greater volumes to Donald Trump threatening 50% tariffs on copper, the near-term commodity outlook is being reshaped by both supply moves and political risk. In this online…
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) The decision by OPEC+ to accelerate the pace of output hikes in August cements our view that the downward pressure on oil prices will intensify over the next 18 months or so. Admittedly, we assume... 7th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Another jumbo OPEC+ hike?; Copper market dislocation We expect OPEC+ to agree to another bumper increase in output at its meeting this weekend and clearly with supply increasing rapidly that will heap downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, the... 4th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: GNU anniversary, Kenya protests, Angola IMF loan The first year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity has seen an improvement in investor appetite towards the country as well as an easing of supply-side constraints. But we think... 27th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Oil prices fall sharply, platinum to follow suit The risk premium in oil markets has largely subsided after the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, leaving bearish fundamentals in the driver’s seat. Meanwhile, a surge in speculative activity appears... 27th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Taking stock of the ‘12-Day War' The Israel-Iran conflict escalated dramatically and, even more quickly, subsided over the past week with the agreement of a ceasefire that has, so far, held. The focus now is on whether Iran pursues... 26th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jun. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The US-brokered Iran-Israel ceasefire has allayed fears of the conflict... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 25th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market fundamentals snap back into focus The Israel-Iran ceasefire is likely to prove fragile. But so long as both parties show themselves unwilling to attack export-related energy infrastructure and/or disrupt shipping flows through the... 24th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Outlook Instability and tariffs cloud otherwise bearish outlook Although instability in the Middle East could easily push oil prices into triple-digit territory, as things stand, the oil market looks set to remain well-supplied and so we expect bearish... 23rd June 2025 · 22 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Growth to strengthen even as fiscal concerns linger The threat posed by US trade protectionism to the region, for now, appears muted. An improvement in the terms of trade for most countries should mean less downward pressure on currencies and... 23rd June 2025 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz This Update answers five key questions about a potential “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz and the potential impacts on global energy markets from any attempt to close the waterway. As it stands, it... 23rd June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Israel-Iran impact, US-Africa trade, DRC peace deal The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African... 20th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Diverging rate decisions, Middle East war & Lat Am While Chile’s central bank this week flagged that it will resume its easing cycle soon, Brazil’s hiked interest rates and didn’t close the door to additional tightening. But despite Brazilian... 20th June 2025 · 7 mins read
