Geopolitical risks mask a fundamentally bearish oil market

The building tensions between Iran and the US have driven Brent crude prices to a six-month high. That said, we think that the historical example of last year’s 12-day war, and a well-supplied oil market, will still bear down on Brent crude prices by end-2026. Meanwhile, the selection of Kevin Warsh as US Fed Chair has poured some cold water on gold prices, and we expect a further reversal of retail investor demand to continue to weigh on them this year.