Chief Economist's Note Whether it’s China, oil or the Fed, investors need to understand macro The past few weeks have served as a rebuttal to those refuseniks who argue that macro doesn’t matter for markets. There have been at least three important events in which a macro understanding is... 7th October 2024
Capital Daily What next for Treasuries after blockbuster payrolls? The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to adopt more measured pace of rate cuts September’s blockbuster employment report and the rebound in the October ISM services index mean that any hopes of another 50bp rate cut are long gone. We continue to expect the Fed to take a more... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Sep) Looking at the labour market strength evident in September’s Employment Report, the real debate at the Fed should be about whether to loosen monetary policy at all. Any hopes of a 50bp cut are long... 4th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Are the upside risks to core inflation mounting? We continue to believe that core PCE inflation will return to the 2%target on a sustained basis early next year, as labour market conditions gradually ease. Up until recently we would also have argued... 3rd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) It’s too soon to say whether the Iranian missile strikes on Israel are the start of a conflict that will eventually result in oil supply being affected or if oil prices will drop back as the... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the industrial heartland of the US stock market? Since mid-2022, the average stock in the industrials sector has returned more than the average stock in all other sectors of the S&P 500. This raises the question of whether investors have a rose... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Mall divergence to persist as luxury boosts top-tier assets While we have been talking up the prospects for retail, malls remain the underperforming subsector in our forecasts. But that covers a wide range of likely performance. Indeed, as luxury retailers... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Services (Sep) The surge in the ISM services index to a 17-month high of 54.9 in September, from 51.5, is a good reminder that the contrasting weakness in manufacturing is not a systemic threat to the modern... 3rd October 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Will US equity underperformance last? While some drivers of the US stock market’s recent underperformance are likely in our view to persist, we think that they will soon be outweighed by renewed enthusiasm about AI. And only when the... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Sep. 2024) The impact of lower mortgage rates was finally evident in mortgage applications in September, with applications for home purchase rebounding to a three-month high. With mortgage rates falling to... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of... 2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS point to further easing in wage growth The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged in September, although the jump in the production index and rebound in new orders paint a slightly less negative picture heading into the fourth quarter. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
