Stephen Brown

Stephen Brown joined Capital Economics in 2014 and has worked in both our London and Toronto offices. He is Deputy Chief North America Economist, with a specialisation in the Canadian economy. In 2021, Stephen was named the most accurate forecaster of the Canadian economy by Refinitiv, FocusEconomics and Consensus Economics. Stephen holds a degree in Economics from the University of Bath and an MSc in Economic History from the London School of Economics.

Canada Economics Weekly

Most of the hit from high interest rates still to come

The fixed payment structure of most variable rate mortgages has cushioned households from the impact of high interest rates so far, with the data this week confirming that debt service costs remained...

17th March 2023 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Mar.)

House prices fell at a slower pace in February and the sharp improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that they will soon stabilise. While the turmoil in the global banking...

15th March 2023 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Housing would be main casualty of SVB contagion

The Canadian banking sector is heavily concentrated, reducing the risk that deposit runs at small lenders might trigger a broader crisis of confidence for the entire sector. As things stand, the...

14th March 2023 3 mins read

Canada Data Response

Manufacturing Sales (Jan.)

The manufacturing sector made a stellar start to 2023, but the surveys suggest growth will soon slow and the banking sector problems in the US could weigh on manufacturing demand over the rest of the...

14th March 2023 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank maintains high bar for future rate hikes

Despite the renewed hawkishness of central bankers elsewhere, the speech that followed the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement this week suggests that the bar to resume rate hikes remains high.

10th March 2023 5 mins read

Canada Data Response

Labour Force Survey (Feb.)

Employment growth slowed sharply in February but the rise in hours worked suggests that the economy performed well last month. With the low unemployment rate putting upward pressure on wage growth...

10th March 2023 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Labour Force Survey (Feb.)

10th March 2023 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident...

8th March 2023 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar.)

8th March 2023 2 mins read

Canada Data Response

International Trade (Jan.)

The strong gains in exports and imports in January suggest that easing supply shortages are offsetting the negative impact of higher interest rates on both external and domestic demand. That presents...

8th March 2023 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Jan.)

8th March 2023 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Full effects of higher rates yet to be felt

The latest data give the Bank of Canada plenty to think about ahead of its policy announcement next week. The data appear to lend support to the Bank’s view that a soft landing is still achievable...

3rd March 2023 6 mins read

Bank of Canada Watch

Too soon for pause to become permanent

The fall in CPI inflation in January and stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP mean there is little chance of the Bank of Canada resuming interest rate hikes next week. But concerns about the tight labour...

1st March 2023 7 mins read

Canada Data Response

GDP (Q4)

The stagnation in fourth-quarter GDP, together with the downward revision to third-quarter GDP growth, leaves the economy in worse shape than the Bank of Canada expected. That is another reason to...

28th February 2023 2 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Q4)

28th February 2023 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Fall in inflation partly due to one-off effects

The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in January was partly due to one-off effects, but still reduces the chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to resume raising interest rates...

24th February 2023 5 mins read