Skip to main content

New US tariff regime still not the end of the story

President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest downside risks to our forecast for global GDP growth and a small upside risk to our US inflation forecast. That said, this is unlikely to be the final word, as it still seems likely that some other countries will reach their own deals with the US, while there is a chance that the US courts will eventually strike down these tariffs.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access