President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest downside risks to our forecast for global GDP growth and a small upside risk to our US inflation forecast. That said, this is unlikely to be the final word, as it still seems likely that some other countries will reach their own deals with the US, while there is a chance that the US courts will eventually strike down these tariffs.
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