Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing set for a weaker Q3 After a large fall in July, the EM manufacturing PMI only edged up slightly last month, suggesting that the sector fared worse in Q3 than in the first half of the year. The PMIs did at least provide... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2024) The much stronger-than-expected Brazilian GDP figure for Q2, of 1.4% q/q, means that the economy now appears to be on course to expand by 3% over the year as a whole. The flip side is that it will... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: lessons from history point to Q1 rate cut Attention in Egypt is turning to the timing of the first interest rate cut. The lessons from the start of the last easing cycle in 2018 suggest that this is likely to begin in Q1, which is a little... 3rd September 2024 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Aug. 2024) August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time... 3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q2 2024) The Turkish GDP figures for Q2, which showed a better-than-expected 0.1% q/q expansion in output, suggest that the rebalancing process still has some way to go. The data argue in favour of the central... 2nd September 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Aug. 2024) The PMIs for August suggest that economic momentum held broadly steady last month, with modest improvements in manufacturing helping to offset a further slowdown in construction activity. But with... 2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tariff barriers keep climbing, USD still dominates trade Canada's new tariffs on Chinese exports won't have much of an impact on China's economy, but they are symptomatic of a broader wave of protectionist measures that have been ramping up in recent years... 30th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly China-Africa lending, Zambia power cuts to bite Data out this week showed that Chinese lending to Africa increased for the first time since 2016. But worries about convoluted debt restructuring processes mean that Chinese outbound lending to the... 30th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug. 24) Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears... 30th August 2024 · 1 min read
India Rapid Response Growth slowing, but economy still strong GDP figures for Q2 show a sharper-than-expected slowdown in India’s economy. Looking ahead, we expect economic activity to moderate a bit further over the coming quarters. But the big picture is that... 30th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Falling fertility in Korea, government in retreat New figures released this week show that the fertility rate in Korea fell again last year to a new all-time low of just 0.72 births per woman. The decline in the fertility rate will weigh heavily on... 30th August 2024 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up thanks to fiscal boost Our China Activity Proxy suggests that activity growth edged up in July thanks to a ramp-up in fiscal spending. Policy support will continue to drive a cyclical recovery over the coming months. But... 29th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are... 29th August 2024 · 6 mins read
