Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA SONA: Growth, fiscal discipline and Trump President Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation Address (SONA) to recommit to fiscal discipline and investment-led growth, but the government will struggle to balance the two objectives. And we doubt... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Hawks flying in CEE, growing pressure on the CBR? Communications from central banks in Poland and Czechia this week were both on the hawkish side, but we expect a continued divergence in monetary policy over the coming year as interest rates remain... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Tariffs paused, Milei & the cepo While Mexico avoided a 25% US import tariff on Monday with a last minute deal, the threat hasn’t gone away. Were a 25% tariff to come into force, that would tip the economy into recession. And the... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Holiday data softer than headlines suggest Consumer activity over the Lunar New Year holiday was widely interpreted as strong. But much like the latest PMIs, it is actually consistent with a slowdown in growth at the start of 2025. Visit our... 7th February 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update New governor, new direction for the RBI The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 3 mins read
India Rapid Response RBI Policy Announcement (Feb. 25) The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by 25bps today to 6.25% confirms that, under new leadership, its priorities have tilted from containing inflation to providing more... 7th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) Mexico’s central bank stepped up the pace of monetary easing to 50bp at today’s meeting, lowering the policy rate to 9.50%, and the overall communications were dovish. While a tariff-induced drop in... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador’s election: crunch time for the public finances Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday is set to be a tight race, with a second round run-off in April likely to be needed to separate the two leading candidates. Among the next government’s... 6th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut its policy rate by 25bp today, to 3.75%, and we think that further easing lies in store this year. Our forecast for the policy rate to fall to 3.00% by end-2025 would... 6th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s sovereign debt outlook is perilous Mozambique’s post-election woes are mounting after another reported delay to one of its key natural gas projects. And this has led to increasing talk that the government may seek to restructure its... 6th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Feb.) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and we think that interest rates will remain on hold throughout 2025. That’s a more hawkish forecast than the consensus... 5th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China retaliates, risking further tariff escalation 4th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Trump’s focus on land bill risks GNU instability The threat by President Trump to cut funding to South Africa due to the controversial land expropriation bill will (if implemented) have limited direct economic effects. The bigger concern is that the... 3rd February 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry struggling even before potential Trump tariffs The latest PMIs suggests that the weakness in EM manufacturing at the end of last year has continued into 2025. While the events of today have highlighted the uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy... 3rd February 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China gets off lightly on tariffs, for now The additional 10% tariff that Donald Trump has applied on Chinese goods will have a relatively modest impact on China’s economy, especially if the PBOC allows the renminbi to adjust. But this is... 3rd February 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jan. 2025) The sharp jump in the m/m rate of Turkish inflation, to 5.0%, was largely driven by one-off factors. And so long as the February CPI figures come in much softer (as we expect), we still think it’s... 3rd February 2025 · 2 mins read