Key lessons from the Iran war so far

The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be tested if agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz proves elusive. But the experience of the past few months suggests a global recession and major monetary tightening cycle may be less likely than many assumed.This Update identifies key lessons from the Iran War so far and how they might shape developments in the next 6-12 months.