Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Rare earths “deal” won’t be the final word President Trump’s claim that China has agreed to supply the US with “ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS… UP FRONT” might seem to draw a line under concerns about supply shortages and production shutdowns. But... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Limited US-China “deal” suggests ambitions are low A deal with China is done, according to President Trump, but its scope seems to be limited to easing some recent non-tariff restrictions, including China’s rare earth export controls. The wider trade... 11th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Policy turmoil starting to damage investment intentions Trade policy uncertainty has damaged investment intentions in the US, Canada, Mexico and South East Asia. But intentions elsewhere have held up better and investment growth itself has yet to falter... 4th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to weak outlook for global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity has weakened so far in Q2. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain subdued in most countries apart from in the US, where tariffs already seem to... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show price pressures easing outside the US The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs affecting sentiment more than activity so far Q1 GDP data showed that most of the world’s economies were still growing at a decent pace ahead of the main tariff hikes and several were boosted by front-running. Consumer and business confidence... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown. The deal may provide more US support for... 1st May 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Critical mineral tug of war is not a major macro risk This Update answers several key questions on critical minerals and the economic implications. In short, there is no quick fix to securing access to minerals given the extent of China’s advantage... 30th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy financial conditions on the mend The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
