Global Economics Update Is the UK (or France) heading for an IMF bail-out? The UK’s fiscal and balance of payments position may be far from a picture of health but speculation that it may be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout is far-fetched. The risks are greater for... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Rise in DM services inflation not the start of a trend The recent rise in services inflation in advanced economies has been driven by temporary and economy-specific factors, rather than a general trend. The unwinding of these factors, together with weaker... 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Why is the US tariff rate not higher? The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Labour markets weakening in most DMs, not just US While the US jobs data captured the spotlight recently, the weakening of labour markets in most advanced economies has received less attention. Softer labour demand should dampen wage and price... 12th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Primer on pharmaceutical & semiconductor tariffs Ahead of any possible introduction of US tariffs on imports of pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, this Update brings together key facts and figures on the scale of such tariffs and economies’... 6th August 2025 (Updated 7th August 2025) · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update World trade slowdown in Q2 just the beginning The fall in world trade in Q2 was just a reversal of tariff front-running in Q1. But export orders are continuing to weaken, and with US tariff rates now about 15-25% in most economies, we expect... 5th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Update Your questions on Japan answered We held an online Drop-In session yesterday to discuss the latest developments in Japan’s economy and financial markets. This Update answers several of the questions that we received. 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update No single tariff playbook for central banks While higher tariffs will cause some Asian economies to pursue slightly looser monetary policy than otherwise, domestic factors will be the key driving force behind rate decisions in most economies in... 23rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will stablecoins move into the mainstream? In this Update, we answer the key questions about what stablecoins are, whether they will become more widely used and what implications they have for the US Treasury market. 8th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam settles with Trump, with China again a target Vietnam has had one of the weakest hands to play in its trade negotiations with the US. If it is confirmed that it has agreed to a 20% tariff, this isn’t a template that other countries will feel they... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What to expect as the Liberation Day deadline looms Given the limited progress in concluding trade negotiations since Liberation Day, there is a risk that huge tariffs will be imposed on 9 th July after the 90-day pause expires. We suspect that further... 2nd July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Fears about AI-driven job losses are overdone A number of AI-linked redundancies have hit the headlines recently, reigniting fears that the adoption of AI will lead to a surge in unemployment. We continue to think that fears of a big long-term... 30th June 2025 · 6 mins read
