India-US trade deal: economic and geopolitical ramifications

2nd February 2026

The 18% tariff that President Trump has announced will be applied to imports from India – down from 50% – would significantly boost India’s attractiveness as an alternative manufacturing hub to China. And there could be geopolitical ramifications too; many in India would prefer to remain strategically unaligned but if this rapprochement proves durable, India would likely gravitate back into the US bloc.

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