Asia Economics Update How rising defence spending will impact Asia Defence spending across Asia is set to rise over the coming years, driven in part by increased pressure from the US for its allies to shoulder more of their own security costs. While the overall boost... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s GST reforms are an encouraging step Reported simplifications to India’s Goods and Services Tax (GST) would, all else equal, result in a slightly larger fiscal deficit this year and next, as well as provide some policy-induced support to... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is Trump the mortar for the BRICS? President Trump’s tariff salvo aimed at some of the BRICS economies has led to growing efforts within the bloc to present a united front in the face of US protectionism. But divisions between the... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Trump takes a jab at India and the oil market If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India’s attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined. Global oil prices... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate on hold at 5.50% and maintained its “neutral” policy stance today, despite India already being hit by a 25% US tariff with the potential for it to... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Can India wean itself off Russian oil? India could in principle find suppliers other than Russia to meet its energy needs relatively easily with little economic impact. Indeed, Indian oil refiners are reportedly reducing their purchases... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (July) The July PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued and we continue to expect activity in Asia’s export-oriented manufacturing sectors to struggle in the coming months. And with inflation... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Trade negotiations to take centre stage for Asia Trump has confirmed that punitive tariffs on Asian countries will take effect on 1 st August unless trade deals are agreed by the end of the month. Despite the urgency, negotiations could prove... 8th July 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs (June) The June PMI readings for most countries in Asia were subdued. With worries about growth having taken precedence over those about inflation, we think most central banks in the region will continue to... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update How might India push back against Chinese imports? India’s goods trade deficit with China is now at a record high. This largely reflects rising goods imports from China which, while bringing economic benefits in some areas, are also raising concerns... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Good times for Indian equities may prove short-lived India’s stock market has fared well this quarter, outperforming other emerging market equities in aggregate, but we doubt this bout of outperformance will last in the near term. 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
