India Economics Update RBI keeps rates on hold, but hikes will materialise soon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to “closely monitor developments” in the Middle East. But it is clear that rupee weakness remains a concern... 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Which states have the brightest manufacturing prospects? Recent free-trade deals are likely to reinforce rather than reshape the hierarchy of manufacturing ambitions in India. Gujarat and Tamil Nadu remain the states with the strongest medium-term growth... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia’s low inflation comes at a rising fiscal cost Inflation across Asia is beginning to diverge sharply, driven largely by differences in how governments are managing rising energy costs. Some economies have allowed higher fuel prices to pass through... 20th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EM central banks might be next to hike? The EM central banks that have tightened monetary conditions in response to the energy shock (Turkey, Pakistan, Philippines) are facing balance of payments strains and very large inflation shocks... 19th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Assessing the effects of an extreme war scenario In this Update, we explore an extreme scenario in which the Iran war escalates beyond the assumptions in our published baseline and adverse scenarios. With Brent crude jumping higher and staying at... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update West Bengal victory is pivotal for PM Modi’s BJP The key takeaway from the results of the recent round of state elections – West Bengal in particular – is that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP is weathering the energy shock without a meaningful loss of... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Heatwave completes trifecta of risks for India Extreme heat is now compounding the challenges of rising fertiliser prices and deficient monsoon rains to undermine yields in Indian agriculture. Industry and services could be hit too; a surge in... 28th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Iran war and EMs – your questions answered This Update answers the questions on the Iran war and the impact on emerging markets that we have received most frequently from clients in meetings, through our platform and in our online briefings... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Weak monsoon would compound Iran war impact The weaker-than-normal monsoon that is now being forecast by experts for this year threatens to compound the impact of the Middle East conflict on India’s economy. Crop yields could come under... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The economic consequences of a tax on Hormuz trade A tax on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would be unlikely to have major near-term implications for global energy markets, trade or wider economic activity. But depending on how it is structured... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Energy shock looms large over India’s state elections India’s state election cycle kicks back into gear next month with the energy shock from the Iran conflict reverberating across the country. That raises the stakes for New Delhi: if the crisis... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Gulf remittance risk for Asia A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could hit remittance flows as worsening economic prospects in the Gulf weighed on demand for migrant workers. A collapse in remittances seems unlikely. But any... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strategic reserves are no substitute for an open Strait A record-breaking release of emergency oil reserves could cushion a lack of supply from the Middle East and provide some relief to oil prices. However, this would prove temporary with prices likely to... 11th March 2026 · 4 mins read
