Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Israel’s strikes on Iran: assessing the macro impact The overnight strikes by Israel on Iran mark a major escalation in the conflict in the region and, with the oil market tighter than it was a few months ago, the risks to oil prices look more balanced... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI ends easing cycle with a bang The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50bps (to 5.50%) while also changing its policy stance from “accommodative” to “neutral” today are clear... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Good times for Indian equities may prove short-lived India’s stock market has fared well this quarter, outperforming other emerging market equities in aggregate, but we doubt this bout of outperformance will last in the near term. 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of the US court ruling on tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the... 29th May 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Update India will leave Japan (and Germany) trailing in its wake Debate around whether or not India’s economy has surpassed Japan’s in size is raging, but the big picture is that India was always going to overtake Japan – and also Germany – given its positive... 28th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Should core inflation be a worry for the RBI? Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Tariffs: where we stand and potential flashpoints The recent climbdown has left the effective US tariff on the rest of the world at around 15% as opposed to the 27% which was threatened at the height of this year’s trade war. While this is still the... 13th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Global Trade Stress Monitor To cut through the noise surrounding tariff impacts, we’ve pinpointed seven key stages in the global trade cycle – tracking in real time how each is responding to tariffs. This tool helps clients... 13th May 2025 (Updated 11th June 2025) · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update A truce in the US-China trade war The US and China have each suspended for 90 days all but 10% of their Liberation Day tariffs and cancelled other retaliatory tariffs. This is a substantial de-escalation. However, the US still has... 12th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Kashmir: old tensions in a new geopolitical context If limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the economy of either country. Pakistan would have more to lose than India from a... 7th May 2025 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Healthy monsoon would boost India’s economy A robust monsoon this year – as predicted by experts – wouldn’t have as big an impact on India’s economy as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it could boost employment and energy... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The economic impact of rising tensions in Kashmir Provided it was limited just to Kashmir, a period of fighting between Pakistani and Indian forces would have a small impact on the overall economy of either country. The closing of the only land trade... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Mapping out trade war scenarios President Trump’s trade war has created material downside risks for the global economy. Our forecasts assume that tariffs on most countries outside China will stay at 10% and retaliation by other... 10th April 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle will run further than most expect The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by another 25bps today to 6.00% comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation and the headwinds from US tariffs. But... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
