India Economics Update ECL transition: an inflection point for India’s banks India’s transition to Expected Credit Loss (ECL) provisioning in April 2027 will reshape how banks account for risk. By requiring forward-looking loss estimates rather than waiting for defaults to... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI’s tightening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank of India kicked off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike to the repo rate today (to 5.50%), vindicating our long-held view that policy would need to be tightened even as most... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Where to look for signs of a private investment revival Conditions for the long-awaited resurgence in private corporate investment in India are now largely in place, but tracking in real time whether it is getting under way is tricky. In this Update we... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Services exports to keep current account deficit in check Continued strength in services exports will help to mitigate much of the impact of elevated oil prices and a slowdown in remittance inflows from the Gulf on India’s current account position. We think... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICS summit will again highlight lack of cohesion The upcoming BRICS summit in New Delhi will be billed by India as an effort to give the expanded grouping a more practical and constructive role in the global economy. But differences over the Iran... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update RBI keeps rates on hold, but hikes likely soon The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today as it continues to monitor “the uncertainties of the West Asia conflict”. But we still think that rising inflation will... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update Indian equities to outperform amidst global AI sell-off We think that strong fundamentals and India’s lower exposure than many to AI stocks will lead the MSCI India to outperform all other markets over the next 18 months. 3rd August 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Why GIFT City matters for foreign investors India’s policymakers have long-desired more financial activity linked to the economy to take place onshore. But they remain reluctant to quickly and fully open the capital account, with recent bouts... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI is lifting Asia’s non-chip manufacturers too The global AI investment boom is delivering a bonanza to electronics manufacturers across Asia well beyond just chipmakers in Korea and Taiwan. 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What is the future of US tariffs? The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Despite near-term headwinds, we are upbeat on the rupee The rupee has been one of the worst performing emerging market currencies over the past year. But it now looks undervalued, and we think that a hawkish RBI combined with falling energy and gold prices... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi attacks? Given reports of Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb passage to the Red Sea and to attack Saudi oil infrastructure, we are publishing an updated version of this note originally sent on 31st... 16th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of a renewed closure of the Strait The global economy has so far weathered the energy shock created by the war in Iran, but a sharp drawdown in oil inventories has left stocks close to critically low levels. The oil market therefore... 16th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will be next to hike rates? The renewed rise in oil prices has cast fresh uncertainty over the outlook for interest rates. But one thing that emerges from the latest CPI data is that there are a handful of countries where strong... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update AI and the evolution of India’s services exports India’s services exports have long been associated with low-cost call centres and business process outsourcing (BPO). But in recent years, multinationals have been building product development... 15th July 2026 · 3 mins read
