The “Section 122” global tariff imposed by the Trump administration after the Supreme Court struck down its IEEPA tariffs (including those from “Liberation Day”) in February will expire on Friday, to be replaced by country-specific “Section 301” tariffs. The new regime is likely to raise the average US tariff rate by a couple of percentage points, taking it back towards the ~9.5% level prior to the Court’s ruling. Some details remain uncertain, but the biggest tariff hikes will probably fall on Asian economies. Overall, the macroeconomic impact should be modest. The wildcard – as illustrated by the latest spat with Canada – is whether President Trump uses “Section 338” powers to issue fresh rounds of tariff threats against individual countries.
Alongside this publication, we have updated our Tariffs State of Play dashboard, which we will keep up to date following new tariff developments.
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