China Activity Monitor CAP: Fiscal boost drives new year recovery Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic activity picked up at the start of the year on the back of stronger fiscal spending and export growth. But the Budget for this year implies that the... 27th March 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government steps up response, inflation target retained After initially moving quite slowly, India’s government has stepped up its response to the impact of the Middle East conflict over the past few days. Excise duties on fuel exports have been hiked to... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forget the Chancellor’s headroom and watch the markets It is a misconception that the fiscal support to counter the energy shock will be determined by how much headroom Reeves has against her fiscal rules. The true constraint on the Chancellor is the... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly New outlook, Turkey FX reserves, Russia’s fiscal boost The early signs suggest that the Iran conflict and surge in energy prices have had only a limited impact on activity across Emerging Europe so far. But balance of payments pressures are building in... 27th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) This special UK Economics Scenarios Chart Pack builds on the analysis and scenario forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook (see here) to provide more detail on how the Iran War could... 26th March 2026 · 0 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fewer rate cuts but fiscal easing won’t come to the rescue China's central bank left the loan prime rates on hold today. With higher oil prices set to keep the economy out of deflationary territory, we're now only expecting the central bank to deliver one... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public finances (Feb. 2026) February’s public finances figures showed that the fiscal position was worse than expected even before the full impact of the surge in energy prices is felt. As a result, we doubt there is scope for a... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Energy shock looms large over India’s state elections India’s state election cycle kicks back into gear next month with the energy shock from the Iran conflict reverberating across the country. That raises the stakes for New Delhi: if the crisis... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Net government debt will fall to 80% of GDP by 2028 Japan’s public finances are improving at an even faster pace than we had anticipated, supporting our long-held view that the country won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon. 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy crisis won’t hasten Australia’s shift to renewables The Iran conflict has exposed Australia’s continued reliance on fossil fuels, reigniting debate over a green energy pivot. While the government has legislated ambitious climate targets, it has shown... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly LPG shortage taking a toll in India India's Finance Ministry today announced an "Economic Stabilisation Fund" which will be partly used to boost fertiliser subsidies, but a halt to supply of LNG would nevertheless cause major disruption... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Energy shock compounds Indonesia’s fiscal challenges Indonesia was already struggling to contain its budget deficit and the conflict in the Middle East will only add to the challenges, with the government planning to temper the impact on local fuel... 13th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government cushioning blow from energy shock Japan’s government is capping gasoline prices at levels below last year’s average and is also releasing crude oil from stockpiles to prevent shortages. However, should crude oil prices rise much... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
