UK Economic Outlook Near-term pain, better times ahead The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong... 28th September 2026 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Near-term relief but headwinds remain Stronger fiscal spending should lift growth over the final months of the year. But we expect growth to slow further over the medium term. 25th September 2026 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan can sustain a 10-year JGB yield above 3% The rise in the 10-year JGB yield to more than 3% this week is concerning as that benchmark is now higher than our long run forecast for Japan’s nominal GDP growth. However, for now we aren’t overly... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth slump deepens Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth remained in the doldrums in August amid a contractionary fiscal stance and continued typhoon disruptions. Growth should recover soon as fiscal spending... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Election worries will keep pressure on French bonds Global bond markets have taken a big hit in recent months, but French government bonds have been singled out. We think this makes sense given the widening fiscal deficit and the growing risks around... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) After a very strong first half of the year, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth should still average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 22nd September 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s next government faces a fiscal reckoning Brazil’s next government will inherit a fiscal position that requires fiscal tightening to the tune of 3.0% of GDP to stabilise the public debt ratio. A Bolsonaro victory would offer a path towards... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Public Finances (Aug. 2026) The penultimate public finances release before the Budget on 28th October paints a dismal picture, with the government once again borrowing more than expected. This supports our view that a small or... 22nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Carney opts for diversification over retaliation Ottawa sent a clear message this week that it will not engage in further escalation of the trade war with the US, looking past the recently announced import ban to instead focus on opportunities... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
