Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Still wary of welfare spending, an empty deal It's now nearly a year since China's leadership promised to "vigorously boost consumption" and the government this week released another policy document pledging more support for households. These... 13th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Inflation to stay low, sharp fiscal tightening in Pakistan Recent data show inflation stayed soft across Asia last month, with Thailand, Sri Lanka, and China all in deflation. While the jump in oil prices following Israel’s attacks on Iran pose an upside risk... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Q3 Outlook, inflation, defence spending Headline inflation in India has dropped to a more-than-six-year low and, while higher oil prices are an upside risk following Israel's air strikes on Iran, there are reasons to think inflation will... 13th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM fiscal risks - a story of growing country differences EM sovereign debt risks remain much higher than in the pre-pandemic period. There are positive stories of declining risk in those EMs undergoing reforms (e.g. Argentina) and low fiscal risks in the... 12th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: US protectionism just one of many challenges Mexico has emerged from the US’s shift to protectionism better than was feared a few months ago. But the economy will still struggle to eke out any growth this year. And while the rest of the region... 12th June 2025 · 21 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Israel-Iran fears, Red Sea investment, Saudi Q1 GDP Worries of an imminent Israeli strike on Iran and/or its proxies drove a jump in oil prices on Wednesday, but the fallout for the oil market and, in turn, the Gulf economies should be limited... 12th June 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update The tough decisions for the UK Chancellor won’t end here The 2025 Spending Review is the tightest (outside of the austerity years in the early 2010s) since 2000 and the tough decisions for Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, won’t end here. The government’s U-turns... 11th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economic outperformance in the face of tariff threat India’s economy has had a strong first half of the year and is poised to grow by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, making it a global outperformer. The recent sharp drop in inflation has enabled the Reserve... 9th June 2025 · 17 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tax cuts, trade and a truce The latest CBO projections suggest that tariff revenues will almost exactly offset the cost of the budget reconciliation over the next decade. Otherwise, although the recent talks between Presidents... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Floods in Nigeria, SA Budget and inflation target Flooding in Nigeria in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, it could result in interest rates being kept higher for longer. More fundamentally, the... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
