Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why is inflation in Saudi Arabia so low? Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the... 14th July 2025 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania inflation rebound, Trump’s Russia statement Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Defence boost demands more than a federal whip-round The federal government’s ambitious plans to boost defence spending will require more than operational spending cuts, although Canada’s favourable fiscal position leaves plenty of scope to borrow... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable is Ireland to Trump’s policies? There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient... 10th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Market jitters increase the chances of further tax rises While this week's gilt-sterling sell-off was short-lived, it's left a gloomy cloud over the one-year anniversary of the government's election victory. If the Chancellor is going to continue to meet... 4th July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Budget reconciliation + tariffs will leave deficit unchanged With the House of Representatives today passing the Senate’s bigger version of the budget reconciliation, the Republicans appear to have met President Trump’s timeline – to have the bill reach his... 3rd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenyan protests exacerbating default fear Protests have erupted again in Kenya recently, bringing violence and instability, and highlighting that the government lacks the political capital to repair the fragile fiscal position. With... 3rd July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reconciliation bill inches away from finish line Although the cost of the final reconciliation bill looks set to be much larger than the House originally planned, it will not result in any meaningful stimulus for the economy. President Trump will... 3rd July 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: One year on – Is the government boosting growth? The government has implemented some good policies in its first year, but it has undermined the resulting one-off boost to real GDP in the coming years with a few missteps. And the possible permanent... 3rd July 2025 · 23 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
