US Economics Update Will debt ceiling deal weigh on the economy? The debt ceiling deal constitutes a modest fiscal tightening, principally because it will guarantee the resumption of student loan repayments this summer, but we aren’t worried that the post-deal... 1st June 2023 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Debt ceiling fight moves on to Congress Although President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have finalised a deal to raise the debt ceiling, we wouldn’t be surprised if legislative delays mean that deal doesn’t get passed by... 29th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s fiscal rule inches closer, Chile’s bank risks The strong support for Brazil’s new fiscal framework in a vote in the lower house this week suggests that there’s more political appetite for austerity than we had anticipated. And, taken together... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling impasse likely to drag on into early June The debt ceiling stand-off will probably now drag on into early June, setting up the prospect of a near-default before a bipartisan bill is finally passed by Congress, possibly only after a more... 25th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly BCT independence, Saudi-OPEC+, Egypt reforms The independence of Tunisia’s central bank has come under threat this week, which will only diminish any remaining hopes that the country’s IMF deal will be approved. Elsewhere, comments from Saudi... 25th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Chart Book Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Data Response Public finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures got the new fiscal year off to a shaky start. But we doubt this will prevent the Chancellor from embarking on a fiscal splurge ahead of the next general election... 23rd May 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Book Policymakers can breathe easier on inflation The past month has brought some encouraging news on the inflation front. Consumer price inflation dropped sharply in April to an 18-month low, keeping the headline rate comfortably within the RBI’s 2... 22nd May 2023 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic resilience emboldens Fed hawks Recent solid activity data and the apparent progress on debt ceiling negotiations appear to have convinced some Fed officials that it is still too early to pause interest rate hikes. We still aren’t... 19th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Economics Weekly Egypt reform progress, Saudi public finances Egypt’s government laid out fresh efforts this week to attract greater foreign investment into the country which also coincided with the first state asset sale in nearly a year. But, unless the... 18th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
US Economics Weekly Sticky core inflation; debt ceiling stand-off continues The April CPI release showed core inflation still remains elevated, but that won't prompt the Fed to resume hiking interest rates when the debt ceiling stand-off looks set to go down to the wire early... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech fiscal tightening, last thoughts before Turkey’s vote The Czech government’s long-awaited fiscal consolidation package unveiled this week will include fiscal tightening to the tune of 1.5% of GDP over 2024/25 and will come at the cost of weaker growth... 12th May 2023 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa entering a perfect storm It’s been a week to forget for South Africa, in which fears emerged that the improvement in the public finances is stalling and concerns about (even more) intense loadshedding surfaced. That was... 12th May 2023 · 7 mins read
