Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Conditions ripe for fiscal crisis, gov’t must not pull the trigger Most of the conditions that have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. The missing factor is a trigger. This means that whatever the Chancellor chooses to do in the Autumn Budget, it’s... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Possible UK landlord tax a headwind to supply and tailwind to rents If the Chancellor were to apply National Insurance tax to rental income in the Autumn Budget, it could further restrain the supply of rental properties and push up rents by more than otherwise. 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Growth picks up, but economy remains weak Our China Activity Proxy shows that China’s economy accelerated last month, with growth picking up across all sectors. Still, the economy remains far weaker than official estimates suggest. We expect... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Vision 2030: where do things stand with five years to go? Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reform programme passed the halfway mark last year and we published an in-depth Focus evaluating the progress so far. This Update takes a fresh look at how close the... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Property taxes won’t solve the Chancellor’s fiscal problems Speculation around which taxes the Chancellor could raise in the Autumn Budget to avoid breaking her fiscal rule and to rebuild her headroom got into full swing this week. Although in theory property... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Millions are about to see their take-home pay fall From 1st September onwards, companies in China and their employees will no longer be able to avoid making social security contributions. This will pave the way for higher pay-outs over the medium-term... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2025) India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting... 21st August 2025 · 1 min read
