Africa Economics Weekly
Despite the release of better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth figures in Ghana, the economic outlook remains gloomy as policy tightening to address the country’s debt woes will increasingly bite. And in...
UK Economics Weekly
The surge in gilt yields and the fall in the pound after the Chancellor announced his hefty tax cuts suggests that the markets have concluded the policies will lead to higher interest rates and more...
UK Economics Update
The Chancellor claimed that this was a plan for growth. But unless the Chancellor’s gamble pays off and the government’s fiscal policy boosts GDP growth by 0.5-1.0ppts per annum, the risk is that once...
UK Economics Rapid Response
Latin America Economics Update
The improvement in government budget positions across Latin America over the past year or so has been driven in large part by temporary factors and is likely to reverse before long. As things stand...
UK Economics Update
A key prong to the new PM’s economic policy is to increase the size of the economic pie, rather than redistributing it, seemingly funded by higher public borrowing. If the new government’s gamble on...
India Chart Book
The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22...
UK Markets
The public finances figures brought some cheer for the new Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, ahead of his fiscal statement on Friday. That said, the government’s huge fiscal expansion and the weakening...
UK Markets
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update
Despite incurring a record loss last year and now having to operate with negative equity, the RBA has not requested a recapitalisation from the government. But given that it did receive a capital...
Latin America Economics Weekly
The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation...
Africa Economics Weekly
The fall in Nigeria’s oil production in August to a 50-year low, coming alongside the recent drop back in oil prices, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy’s prospects. Elsewhere, Kenya’s...
Latin America Economics Update
Mexico’s 2023 budget proposal suggests that officials intend to stick to their tight policy stance, but the public finances are likely to deteriorate if (as we expect) oil prices fall back and the...
UK Economics Update
After fully adjusting our economic forecasts to take account of what is shaping up to be a big fiscal expansion, we now think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.75% currently to a...
Emerging Europe Economics Update
Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully...
