Russia-India energy relations, Turkey CPI, CEE rates

We are sceptical that India will fully curtail its oil imports from Russia as part of the US-India trade deal announced this week, but even a partial scaling back of purchases could add to strains in Russia’s economy. Elsewhere, the upside surprise in Turkish CPI reinforces our view that the rebalancing process is becoming more challenging. Finally, the National Bank of Poland’s post-meeting communications provide a strong signal that another rate cut is coming in March, and the risks have become skewed towards another rate cut in Czechia too.