Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland GDP (Q2 2026) The acceleration in Polish GDP growth to 0.9% q/q in Q2 underscores that the economy has come through the energy shock in good health and remains an outperformer within Europe. This strong growth is... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Danube disruption, temporary damage Hungary and Romania face a near-term electricity supply squeeze due to record-low water levels in the Danube. Our base case is this will be a modest and temporary drag on Q3 GDP that is recouped in Q4... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (July 2026) The region appears to have come through the energy shock in good shape so far, with economic activity growing strongly in Q2 (Russia and Romania aside) and inflation falling below central banks’... 28th July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s large budget deficit is a growing risk The Polish government’s budget deficit, of ~7% of GDP, isn’t going to trigger near-term sovereign debt problems. But there’s little chance of the deficit narrowing significantly in the coming years... 21st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jul. 2026) 8th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE surveys, Tisza budget warning, Russian fuel prices The latest survey data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this week painted a mixed picture for June, but the overall story is that GDP growth looks to have strengthened over Q2 as a whole... 3rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (June 2026) Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The region has come through the energy shock relatively unscathed, and the... 24th June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional easing cycle has further to run Emerging Europe has come through the energy shock with only a minor loss of momentum and (generally) contained inflation. We think the region will be one of the few globally where monetary easing... 19th June 2026 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Door now wide open for rate cuts in Hungary Hungary’s central bank had already been inching towards reducing interest rates and the big downside surprise in the May inflation figures has prompted us to pencil in a larger 50bp cut (to 5.75%) at... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June 2026) Despite hawkish noises from the MPC, the recent softness in the inflation data mean that the central bank will likely hold off from hiking interest rates in the coming months. 2nd June 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (May 2026) The fall in Polish inflation to 3.1% y/y in May – when most had expected a rise above 3.5% - suggests that underlying price pressures are softer than we had thought. In the last couple of weeks, it... 29th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE weathering the energy shock for now The latest surveys for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) for May point to resilience in the face of the energy shock caused by the Iran war, with overall economic sentiment holding up well across... 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
