Emerging Markets Economics Update A challenging H2 ahead for EM manufacturing The EM manufacturing PMI recovered in June, led by China, which regained some momentum, and India, which continued to outperform. That said, the surveys remained at subdued levels in most EMs. And the... 1st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Jun.) The small rise in Polish inflation, to 4.1% y/y, in June is likely to be followed by a fall back within the central bank’s target range over the second half of this year. We think this will give the... 30th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Romania’s new government, Israel-Iran ceasefire The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors, but we think the public debt ratio will stay on a sharp... 27th June 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Emerging Europe is less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but... 26th June 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Outlook: Diverging paths in the face of US protectionism Emerging Europe is generally less vulnerable than other EM regions to higher US import tariffs, but we have still nudged down some of our GDP growth forecasts for this year. We think the region will... 18th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Reflections on recent elections Recent presidential elections in Poland, Romania and Korea have led to significant moves in their financial markets. But from a macro perspective, what also matters is the composition of the... 10th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Bulgaria gets the green light, Poland election fallout The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone next year and, while the macroeconomic implications of euro adoption will be small, geopolitically it will bind the country... 6th June 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (June) The National Bank of Poland left its policy rate on hold today, at 5.25%, but this is only likely to mark a short pause in the easing cycle. We think that interest rates will be cut again at the... 4th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (May) The fall in the manufacturing PMIs out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month suggest that US tariffs may be holding back the region’s industrial sectors. Elsewhere, inflation pressures in... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Polish Presidential Election (2nd Round) The victory for Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the nationalist opposition party, in Poland’s presidential election will continue to stymie the government’s efforts to push through its reform agenda... 2nd June 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Poland’s election could unlock (or block) reform drive A victory for the candidate of the ruling coalition, Rafał Trzaskowski, in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday would remove a key roadblock to the government’s efforts to improve the independence... 30th May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: A brief sigh of relief in Romania, CEE wage growth Nicusor Dan's victory in Romania’s presidential election on Sunday triggered a relief rally in the country’s financial markets, but we think it is difficult to take an optimistic view on the outlook... 23rd May 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Expansion & integration: the future of EU enlargement The push to enlarge the EU has gained momentum since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, but accession progress is likely to be slower than many expect. While some candidate countries stand a good... 20th May 2025 · 32 mins read
