Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s fiscal tightening, Romania under pressure The details of Russia’s 2027 budget point towards fiscal austerity, but it’s hard to view this as credible given spending pressures, particularly for the military. So there’s little reason to expect a... 2nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surveys point to robust Q3 in Central Europe The survey data for Central Europe published this week point to slightly weaker activity in September than in July or August, but it still looks like regional GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was around... 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026) The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its... 30th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tight EM credit spreads mask lingering fiscal risks Measures of EM fiscal risk premia are very low, which partly reflects genuine policy improvements in some high-risk economies. But a few countries such as Mozambique and Tunisia still face the risk of... 29th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary's new inflation target, Romania's fiscal mess The Hungarian central bank’s announcement of a new, lower inflation target this week puts the country one step further along the path to euro adoption. But arguably the bigger challenge in achieving... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (September 2026) Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on growth in Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the... 23rd September 2026 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Thoughts on a jam-packed week for monetary policy A busy week for monetary policy highlighted the growing divergence among the region's central banks. On the more dovish side, Poland’s appears in no rush to shift to interest rate hikes, while we... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 2026) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.75% may be followed by communications that take a more cautious line, reflecting the strength of the latest inflation... 9th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets turn increasingly hawkish in Poland The strength of the GDP and inflation figures out of Poland this week, alongside rising energy prices, have led investors to price in 75bp of interest rate hikes over the next year. While our base... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (August 2026) Economic growth has generally held up well since the start of the year, albeit with a divergence that is likely to persist in the coming quarters. Poland is likely to be an outperformer while Romania... 25th August 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s tax proposals, climate disruptions persist Poland's latest income and corporate tax proposals reduce the risk of a further widening of the budget deficit next year, but the government is still avoiding the tougher task of tackling a... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: food deflation benefits won’t last Falls in food prices in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) this year have helped to keep headline inflation rates in check during the energy shock, but this will reverse before long. Global agricultural... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Q2 GDP wrap-up, Turkish monetary easing incoming? The raft of Q2 GDP figures out of Central and Eastern Europe highlighted that the region weathered the energy shock reasonably well but also that there’s a wide divergence in performances across the... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
