Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Orbán’s playbook, Greenland saga, Bulgarian election Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is returning to the familiar playbook of loosening fiscal policy ahead of the election in April. Any signs that a widening in the budget deficit will be sustained... 23rd January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 4.00%, is likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, and we expect two further 25bp cuts over the... 14th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s security, Venezuela spillovers, CPI data The US and Europe appeared to move closer to an agreement on providing security guarantees to post-war Ukraine this week, but Russia is unlikely to be on board with the terms of the proposed... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec. 2025) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y in December, and we think that growth will... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026... 17th December 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine support, CEE rate hikes? There has been further wrangling ahead of the EU leaders’ summit next week about providing a “reparations loan” to Ukraine. Given Ukraine’s dependence on European support, failure to reach agreement... 12th December 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: long end yields may rise, despite more rate cuts Poland’s monetary easing cycle has dragged down short-term government bond yields, but unlike in past cycles, long-term yields haven’t come down very far. Even with the policy rate now likely to fall... 8th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland cut its policy rate by 25bp again today, to 4.00%, and the softness in the latest inflation and wage data suggests to us that a bit more monetary easing will be delivered... 3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The increase in the manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in November offers some encouragement that demand conditions in the region’s industrial sectors may be past the worst. We expect a pickup... 1st December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A path to peace? The revised peace plan worked on by the US and Ukraine in Geneva last Sunday has the potential to result in a more balanced framework to end the war in Ukraine than looked likely last week, but we... 28th November 2025 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in November and point to solid regional growth in Q4. That said, firms’ selling price expectations... 27th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Default risks easing, but simmering fiscal problems in some EMs The incidence of sovereign debt distress has declined sharply across the EM world and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. But our EM Financial Risk Indicators suggest that several countries are still... 25th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q3 GDP data out of Emerging Europe confirmed a growing divergence in the region, with... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Early current account warning signs in a few EMs Emerging economies’ external positions generally look strong. But current account deficits are starting to widen in a handful of countries in Latin America as well as in the Philippines and Poland... 17th November 2025 · 3 mins read
