Emerging Europe Economics Weekly September CPI data, Poland’s fiscal tightening plans The batch of September inflation data this week offered some welcome signs for policymakers, but the Hungarian central bank seems concerned about recent currency weakness which means that the easing... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Oct.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, was never in doubt, and we continue to think that the easing cycle won’t resume until mid-2025. Our... 2nd October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The sharp fall in the manufacturing PMIs in Turkey and Russia in September provide further evidence that their economies are slowing. But the continued rise in the prices balances of the survey in... 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania’s fiscal risks, Russian economy under strain Romania’s fiscal watchdog warned this week that the country’s budget deficit could come in a lot wider than the government originally planned this year at 8.0% of GDP, and we think that investors may... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional economic growth strengthened at the end of Q3. But the rise in selling price expectations... 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus... 26th September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected set of Polish activity data for August suggest that GDP growth softened over Q3. That said, we still maintain our forecast for relatively strong growth of 3.0% for this year... 23rd September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Flooding in Central Europe, Israel’s new phase of war The flooding across Central Europe over the past week will likely weigh on activity in September, but we think that the economic impact will be relatively short-lived and won’t shift the monetary... 20th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Inflation and fiscal risks simmering We have generally revised down our growth forecasts for this year and next. Weakness in the euro-zone will remain a drag on export sectors across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming quarters... 17th September 2024 · 22 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE easing cycles still likely to be slow from here While interest rate cuts by the ECB this week and the Fed next week, as well as the fall in oil prices, could set the stage for more monetary easing in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), we still think... 13th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) The decision by the National Bank of Poland to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely expected by analysts, and the incoming data are supporting our view that there won’t be scope... 4th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs increased across most of the region in August, although they generally remain at weak levels and suggest that industry has continued to struggle in Q3. 2nd September 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s generous budget, Israel-Hezbollah The Polish government’s draft budget for 2025 announced this week suggests that fiscal policy will be more expansionary than we had previously expected next year. While that poses an upside risk to... 30th August 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
