CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot

The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered our 2026 GDP growth forecasts by 0.3-0.5%-pts. While the region is better placed to absorb an energy shock than in 2022, a larger and more persistent rise in inflation would almost certainly trigger fresh interest rate hikes.