Iran conflict: Global macro and market implications

What the Middle East conflict means for Asia macro and markets

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Key analysis

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Global Economics Update

The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest...

5 mins read

Global Economics Update

The consequences of the Middle East conflict

The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points...

8 mins read

Commodities Update

Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz

Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy...

6 mins read

Commodities Update

The underlying factors shaping the oil price shock

While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz dominates the near-term outlook for energy prices, shifting behaviour in the wider oil market – not least a greater willingness from India and China to import...

6 mins read

Commodities Update

Key questions and answers about the LNG crisis

In light of the escalating crisis in the Middle East, including the cessation of LNG production in Qatar, this Update provides broader context about global LNG trade and the implications for energy...

6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism?

The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor...

4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis?

The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most...

3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have...

8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC

Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist...

4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Dubai’s paradise punctured?

Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of...

4 mins read

Drop-In

Iran strikes – Global macro and market implications

Economists from our Macro and Markets teams briefed clients on the key risks to the outlook at this stage of the conflict. Watch the 30-minute briefing here.

UK Economics Update

BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks

With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent...

4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

The Iran shock and Asia

As net energy importers, most economies in Asia are worse off and facing higher inflation as a result of the attacks on Iran. But oil prices would have to rise much further than they have so far – to...

5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran

The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back...

3 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

US market implications of a spike in oil prices

This Update considers whether any lessons can be learned from the oil crisis of the early 1970s when it comes to the potential effects on Treasuries and US equities from the current conflict in the...

4 mins read

Capital Daily

The market’s reaction to the war, and what might be next

The longer the US/Israeli strikes go on the greater the risk to both US Treasuries and equities, in our view. But the US dollar might continue to fare well.

5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone

The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation...

5 mins read