Europe Economics Weekly

Lower gas price forecasts, ECB to leave rates unchanged

We are revising our forecast for ECB policy rates (again!) to reflect our reassessment of the outlook for European natural gas prices. In our new baseline scenario for gas prices, euro-zone inflation...

10th April 2026 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Update

What could the Middle East conflict mean for the UK economy?

Our three scenarios show what the Middle East conflict could mean for petrol prices, utility prices, CPI inflation, GDP growth and interest rates in the UK. All of our coverage of the macro and market...

11th March 2026 · 6 mins read

US Economics Focus

What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed?

The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly...

10th March 2026 · 14 mins read

China Economics Update

China well placed to weather energy price shock

Events in the Middle East mean that China will have to stomach a higher import bill. But China’s economy is not especially dependent on oil and natural gas. And the country has large reserves that it...

10th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Is Asia running on empty with LNG?

Asian economies vary in how dependent they are on LNG from the Gulf – for China and Japan, dependence is low, while Pakistan, Taiwan and Korea have much higher exposure. Low domestic inventories leave...

10th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have...

2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa

The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of...

6th March 2026 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Pakistan will have to hike rates if Iran crisis continues

Pakistan is one of the countries most threatened by the global energy shock because of its dependence on LNG from the Gulf, a recent history of very high inflation and balance of payments weaknesses...

9th March 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia

Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost...

6th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

LatAm: net beneficiaries from the energy price shock

Major Latin American economies are seen as potential beneficiaries of higher energy prices, reflecting in large part their stronger net energy export positions. This Update summarises the key...

12th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis?

The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most...

4th March 2026 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran

The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back...

2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Korea: what higher energy prices mean for inflation

Inflation in Korea was muted again last month, but it would rise sharply in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that led to a sustained increase in global energy prices. Against such...

6th March 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth

We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels...

6th March 2026 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Middle East conflict gives Russia an oil windfall

Russia is a clear beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East, with higher energy prices and, possibly, higher export volumes to Asia likely to narrow the budget deficit. But unless disruption to...

5th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Middle East conflict impact tourism?

The conflict in the Middle East risks damaging the perception of safety in the region’s tourist hubs, especially in the Gulf. History shows that such crises can trigger steep declines in visitor...

4th March 2026 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Dubai’s paradise punctured?

Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of...

3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year

The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year.

9th March 2026 · 3 mins read