Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely?

There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover. As a result, inflation risks are rising and central banks are coming under increasing pressure to respond. When might they act, and what could this mean for economic growth?

Our senior economists revisited the assumptions underpinning our scenarios published earlier in this conflict in the context of recent geopolitical, macro and market developments in this special online briefing.