Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely?

There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover. As a result, inflation risks are rising and central banks are coming under increasing pressure to respond. When might they act, and what could this mean for economic growth?

Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown and Chief Climate & Commodities Economist David Oxley will be among our economists revisiting the assumptions underpinning our scenarios published earlier in this conflict in the context of recent geopolitical, macro and market developments. On Wednesday 6 May at 09:00 ET/14:00 BST, in this concise session the team will also address client questions while providing updated forecasts for advanced and emerging economies, covering key issues including:

• The extent to which the conflict is now driving more adverse macroeconomic outcomes;
• What the latest data signals about how growth and inflation are responding to the energy disruption;
• Which central banks are most likely to react by raising interest rates.

Note: If you are unable to attend the live session, registering will ensure you are sent a recording.