Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Deflationary pressures loom again The m/m declines in both consumer and producer prices in July largely reflect the pullback in global oil prices. But falling prices also underscore that domestic deflationary pressures remain... 10th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Iran continue to hold out? Iran’s financial lifeline has been cut by the US blockade, and the economy will remain in a very depressed state unless it can secure concessions. But whether this happens ultimately comes down to the... 10th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil traders still unsure; the US-yen intervention & gold While the progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman have raised hopes of a future recovery of oil exports from the Middle East, Iran's clear desires to exert control over the Strait is a... 7th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Iran’s Hormuz proposals muddy the waters Even if Iran’s proposed restrictions on US, Israeli, and other “hostile” ships using the Strait of Hormuz are passed into law, they are unlikely to be a major obstacle to energy flows given that most... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Key factors to watch if/when the Strait re-reopens With reports suggesting that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz again is “imminent”, this Update revisits analysis from June and outlines five key factors to watch over the coming weeks and months. 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ to press ahead; oil traders look on bright side of life OPEC+ looks set to agree on another hike in output quotas this weekend. But the resetting of members’ baseline quotas promises to bring internal tensions and the erosion of cohesion within the group... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Hitting Iran’s economy, Saudi’s GDP fall There have been growing suggestions this week that the US will seek to put more economic pressure on Iran to force it to make concessions. But while Iran’s economy is showing increasing strains, the... 30th July 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Profit pick-up doesn’t signal overcapacity being resolved The recent pick-up in industrial profit growth is not a sign that excess capacity in China’s manufacturing sector is being meaningfully resolved. Strong profit growth is concentrated in a few sectors... 30th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Our thoughts on oil’s paper-physical market disconnect Oil prices have fallen back on net this week even though shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, which has prompted questions about the disconnect between paper and physical... 30th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran attacks likely to stop Gulf recovery in its tracks The latest data had showed tentative signs of recovery for the Gulf economies. But this is likely to have halted, or even reversed, due to recent re-escalation of the conflict. The downside risks to... 23rd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi nuclear deal, Trump and Iran up the ante The US-Saudi nuclear deal announced this week is a sign that Washington is trying to shore up ties with the Gulf states, which have been fraying due to the Iran war. The conflict itself has escalated... 23rd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China can’t bail out the global oil market forever The sharp reduction in China’s crude imports has been a key factor keeping a lid on global oil prices, and we suspect that it can sustain historically low imports for many more months. However, this... 23rd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
