China Economics Weekly China relaxing restrictions on refined fuel exports China's government will reportedly ease its restrictions on refined fuel exports further next month. That should be reflected in increased refinery output, but it will only support China's crude oil... 26th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the... 25th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Middle East Outlook – The Gulf economies after the conflict 30th June 2026, 10:00AM BST What does the end of the Iran conflict mean for the Gulf economies? How quickly can they restore energy production to pre-war levels? How has the fighting reshaped their longer-term outlooks?
Commodities Outlook Beyond Hormuz: the path back to an oil glut Investors have already priced in much of the good news on the recovery in Gulf energy exports, leaving scope for some volatility in prices, and even price rises, over Q3 and Q4. Beyond this, while... 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Capital Daily Strait jitters, bond divergence, and more UK politics Renewed US-Iran tensions have caused a bit of concern in markets at the start of the week, but as long as negotiations press ahead, global bonds could continue to diverge both from oil prices and from... 22nd June 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly US-Iran MoU brings oil glut back on the cards in 2027 Oil prices have fallen sharply following the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Our view is that, while there is limited scope for significant price declines over the coming months, an... 19th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MOU and the path to recovery, Egyptian pound rallies The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is a major step towards a resolution of the conflict and a recovery in Gulf... 18th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Global Economics Update Higher inflation baked in regardless of US-Iran deal If the US-Iran deal holds and oil prices remain at their new, lower level, this will swiftly lower fuel inflation. However, this drag on headline inflation would be offset – outside the US, at least –... 16th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War re-escalation risk grows, Saudi GDP, Egypt inflation The recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran haven't derailed talks over ending the war. But the risk of a miscalculation is growing, which could trigger a return to the intense hostilities... 11th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
