Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 51 mins read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to know on energy markets & demand destruction With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back in escalation mode Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an... 23rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fewer rate cuts but fiscal easing won’t come to the rescue China's central bank left the loan prime rates on hold today. With higher oil prices set to keep the economy out of deflationary territory, we're now only expecting the central bank to deliver one... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Refined oil products caught in the maelstrom The surge in the prices of refined oil products is amplifying the economic impact of the energy crisis. Countries in Africa that ordinarily source oil products from the Middle East have been most... 20th March 2026 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy shortages rather than prices the imminent threat for India Regulated prices insulate consumers in India from surges in global energy prices but they are no protection against – and, indeed, they contribute to – shortages of fuels and related products. We’ve... 20th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy market meltdown; gold failing to shine The attack on Qatar’s LNG export hub, which has knocked out 3-4% of global LNG supplies, grabbed the headlines and has caused natural gas and LNG prices to spike. On the face of it, there is some... 20th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Can China’s markets continue to outperform? China’s relative equity and bond market resilience could continue even if the war drags on, although the outlook for the renminbi is less clear. 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict at a tipping point? The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, with damage to energy infrastructure in the region now the key concern. Comments from QatarEnergy’s CEO that LNG export... 19th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will EM central banks respond to the energy shock? The spike in energy prices has already caused Turkey’s central bank to tighten monetary policy and Pakistan may not be far behind. Most other central banks will be more reluctant to tighten but those... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka – in the path of the storm Sri Lanka’s fragile external position makes it one of the countries most vulnerable to a sharp rise in energy prices, and the decision earlier this week to declare every Wednesday a public holiday for... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update How should central banks respond to oil shocks? Central banks face a classic policy dilemma when oil prices surge – inflation rises but growth might weaken. The right response depends crucially on why oil prices are rising, how persistent the shock... 17th March 2026 · 4 mins read
