Global Economics Update Limited scope for fiscal support in energy price shock Governments in developed economies have so far been circumspect in providing fiscal support to households to cushion the impact of higher energy prices. This is likely to remain the case given that... 11th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market has been scarred by the supply shock While an agreement between the US and Iran to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz could pave the way for another leg down in oil prices, supply conditions could remain tight for several months while... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Trump-Xi summit will buy time, not resolve differences Next week's summit between Xi and Trump seems unlikely to deliver much beyond a continuation of the existing truce, although a shift in US language on Taiwan in exchange for pressure on Iran or large... 8th May 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Equities Update How much more upside for equities if the Strait re-opened fully? If the Strait of Hormuz re-opened fully soon, the upside for global equities might appear limited given MSCI’s ACWI Index is now more than 4% higher than before the Iran war began. But its surge from... 7th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Tech stocks versus oil, bonds versus central banks Tech stocks have continued to power ahead despite renewed concerns around the war, but we don’t think they’re completely immune to it. Meanwhile, central bank inaction could be a threat to bond... 5th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely? 6th May 2026, 2:00PM BST There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover.
Commodities Weekly UAE proves Neil Sedaka wrong; Hormuz in limbo The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC+ demonstrates that “breaking up” with the group is not hard to do and fits with our existing view that the ties binding OPEC members together are loosening. The news... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Aviation sector under increasing stress Unlike the cost of automotive fuel, aviation fuel costs in India have been rising since the start of the Iran war, particularly for international flights. With airlines' margins under pressure - and... 1st May 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey points to higher UK property yields from Iran war The Q1 RICS survey showed surveyors don’t expect the Iran conflict to have an impact on occupier demand across any of the major sectors. That said, there was a deterioration in capital value... 30th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC minus, US blockade The surprise announcement that the UAE will be leaving OPEC+ points to a world in which global oil supplies are likely to be higher and prices lower over the medium term (and once the Strait of Hormuz... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1 2026, Flash Estimate) The 1.5% q/q fall in Saudi GDP in Q1 confirmed that spillovers from the Iran war are taking a heavy toll on the economy. This is the flash estimate and the figures could be subject to revision. More... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Iran hold out? The US blockade has cut Iran’s financial lifeline and strains are growing in its balance of payments. Estimates of Iran’s accessible FX reserves suggest that these cover no more than three months’ of... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
