Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel’s economy amid a weakened Iran The conflict with Iran – and Iran’s retaliation – might trigger a contraction in Israeli GDP this quarter, but the experience of the 12-day war last year suggests that activity should bounce back... 2nd March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Iran shock and Asia As net energy importers, most economies in Asia are worse off and facing higher inflation as a result of the attacks on Iran. But oil prices would have to rise much further than they have so far – to... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran conflict and spillovers to the GCC Iran’s strikes on the Gulf economies have punctured the perceived security and stability of the region. This will lead to disruptions to non-oil activity in the near term and, if the attacks persist... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US market implications of a spike in oil prices This Update considers whether any lessons can be learned from the oil crisis of the early 1970s when it comes to the potential effects on Treasuries and US equities from the current conflict in the... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Five Key Questions on the Strait of Hormuz Following the effective “closure” of the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of renewed conflict in the Middle East, this Update answers five key questions about the potential impacts on global energy... 2nd March 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The market’s reaction to the war, and what might be next The longer the US/Israeli strikes go on the greater the risk to both US Treasuries and equities, in our view. But the US dollar might continue to fare well. 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response US and Israel strike Iran The economic fallout from the attacks by the US and Israel on Iran today will depend on how long the conflict lasts, the scale of Iranian retaliation and the spillovers to the oil market. A limited... 28th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Fuelling change – How the energy shock is redefining the EM outlook 16th April 2026, 3:00PM BST Our updated forecasts for emerging markets reflect the impact of the spike in oil and gas prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict.
Event Drop-In: Global Economic and Market Outlook – Pricing the energy shock 26th March 2026, 3:00PM GMT The surge in energy prices that has accompanied fresh fighting in the Middle East challenges assumptions around global growth, inflation and central bank policy across both developed
