Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace dividend may not be paid in full to all markets The announcement of a US-Iran deal has given markets a lift across the board, but different responses across central banks this week could see the start of more divergence across bond and FX markets. 15th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Oil market “offsets”; gold losing its shine The plunge in China's crude oil imports has helped to cushion the impact of the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz on the global oil market, and we think China could feasibly maintain the status quo... 12th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War re-escalation risk grows, Saudi GDP, Egypt inflation The recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran haven't derailed talks over ending the war. But the risk of a miscalculation is growing, which could trigger a return to the intense hostilities... 11th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update A pulse check on the oil market The combination of a plunge in China’s imports and an increase in the US’s exports have helped to absorb the loss of Middle Eastern supply in the oil market. But fundamentally demand is still well... 10th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilising, albeit still depressed There are tentative signs that the worst of the hit to Saudi Arabia’s economy from the Iran war may have passed, but we still expect the Kingdom to record a sharp contraction in GDP this year. 9th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Services still bearing the brunt of Iran war fallout The latest batch of PMIs suggests that industry has been buoyed by precautionary stockbuilding and the AI boom, while consumer-facing services have taken a hit in many economies. At the global level... 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big is the fiscal cost of the Iran conflict? Since the outbreak of the Iran war we have increased our forecast for the aggregate euro-zone fiscal deficit this year from around 3% to 3.5% of GDP. Increased borrowing is not a major worry for... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Iran war and AI boom lift industrial profits Growth in China’s industrial profits accelerated in April, with firms benefitting from higher output prices while mitigating the impact of higher input costs by tapping inventories. The sectors that... 29th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly The art of (looking beyond) the deal Oil prices have fallen throughout the week in anticipation of the US-Iran deal to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, but while re-opening the Strait is a necessary step towards normality in the global... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China could delay the tipping point for oil prices The mismatch between oil supplied and consumed in China suggests that inventories are being drawn down there, which has eased the upward pressure on global oil prices. Against the backdrop of the US... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The fate of one of the war’s best hedges China’s government bonds – unlike those almost everywhere else – have largely shrugged off the conflict. We think their medium-run prospects are bright even if a US-Iran deal renders obsolete their... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response The end of the beginning of the energy crisis? 28th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Limited second-round risks reduce need for rate hikes Fears that the Iran conflict will trigger a sustained resurgence in inflation and a renewed global tightening cycle appear somewhat overdone. Admittedly, inflation in advanced economies looks set to... 27th May 2026 · 18 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market traders caught in limbo Oil market options data suggest that investors expect oil prices to ease lower over the next three months, but given uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz they have unusually low conviction. 26th May 2026 · 3 mins read
