Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2026) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate unchanged at 4.00% today amid concerns about renewed inflationary and geopolitical risks. Interest rates will remain on hold at the upcoming meetings, but... 30th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Q&A: the oil supply chain from the Middle East This Update considers the broader implications of the Middle East war on the crude oil and petroleum product supply chain from the Middle East onwards. At the very end of the supply chain, Oceania and... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economic hit from Iran War has been limited so far Early evidence supports our view that China’s economy will be resilient to higher global energy prices. Regulators have moved to shield most firms and households from the brunt of the increase in... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Government steps up response, inflation target retained After initially moving quite slowly, India’s government has stepped up its response to the impact of the Middle East conflict over the past few days. Excise duties on fuel exports have been hiked to... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Forget the Chancellor’s headroom and watch the markets It is a misconception that the fiscal support to counter the energy shock will be determined by how much headroom Reeves has against her fiscal rules. The true constraint on the Chancellor is the... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: from disinflation tailwind to inflation overshoot The rise in global energy prices will push inflation back above central bank’s targets across CEE economies this year and prevent further interest rates cuts for the foreseeable future. We’ve lowered... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines: unpacking the hit from the Iran war The state of emergency now in place in the Philippines gives the government powers to address the most acute strains in access to essential inputs, but it won’t prevent an economic shock. The central... 26th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Fuelling change – How the energy shock is redefining the EM outlook 16th April 2026, 3:00PM BST Our updated forecasts for emerging markets reflect the impact of the spike in oil and gas prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict. In this online briefing on Thursday 16 April, our econ
Global Economic Outlook Forecasting through the fog of war A short conflict in Iran would push global inflation temporarily higher and trim GDP growth, but the fallout would be manageable. Central banks that had already begun tightening – such as the BoJ and... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to know on energy markets & demand destruction With the global economy potentially facing the largest energy supply shock in history, this Update considers how the oil market may adjust to a new equilibrium in the medium-to-long term. 23rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
