US Economics Weekly Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices... 6th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices to boost inflation more than GDP The surge in oil prices will be positive for the economy, but pipeline capacity constraints mean that the boost to real GDP growth will be only modest. Nonetheless, together with the impact on... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Iran conflict a small downside risk for UK commercial real estate The increase in energy costs brought about by the conflict in Iran could hit commercial property returns either through squeezed occupier margins and therefore weaker property demand and rent growth... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly What the war in Iran means for Latin America Most major Latin American economies will see a terms-of-trade boost from the surge in energy prices due to the war in Iran. Most of the windfall will be saved, providing relief to fragile public... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict to raise UK inflation more than it cuts growth We will wait for more clarity on events in the Middle East before altering our inflation, GDP and Bank Rate forecasts. But in a scenario in which oil and gas prices remain close to current levels... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone policymakers in wait-and-see mode, for now While the spike in energy prices and recent inflation data have reduced the chances of rate cuts this year, we do not expect the ECB to pivot to rate hikes either, provided energy prices do not rise... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly The nightmare energy scenario cometh As conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, the key issue for energy markets is the extent and duration of disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. The steady upward trend in oil prices as... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ GDP likely to keep rising despite energy shock Data published this morning showed that the euro-zone economy grew at a decent pace in Q4 last year. If the recent increase in energy prices is sustained, it will be a small drag on growth but not... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly A stagflationary shock for Asia Higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict would act as a terms-of-trade shock for Asia’s largely energy-importing economies, squeezing households and firms and slowing growth. Inflation would... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy windfall for Russia & woe for Turkey Russia is a beneficiary from the conflict in the Middle East due to the rise in energy prices and a likely rise in export volumes. But we don’t think this materially alters the growth outlook. The net... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil reprieve, but other risks from Iran conflict mount One of India's key exposures to the Middle East conflict is higher oil prices, so news that the US has temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil purchases will have brought some relief in New Delhi... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: what higher energy prices mean for inflation Inflation in Korea was muted again last month, but it would rise sharply in the event of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East that led to a sustained increase in global energy prices. Against such... 6th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price spike more bane than boon for Australia Despite being a net energy exporter, Australia is unlikely to gain much from the ongoing surge in energy prices. This is largely because oil and gas firms are not reinvesting their profits to boost... 6th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Middle East conflict lowers odds of near-term rate hike Japan looks better placed than most Asian economies to weather the disruption to energy supply caused by the conflict in the Middle East. However, a slowdown in economic activity in other countries in... 6th March 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
