Strait traffic latest, more OPEC exits, refreshed forecasts

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is picking up but, so far, there are more vessels leaving the Gulf than entering it. Alongside possible technical issues with restarting energy facilities, the recovery in hydrocarbon output over the rest of this year is likely to be bumpy. Further ahead, energy production in the Gulf looks set to be ramped up, which will lift GDP but result in a return to glut-like conditions global energy markets. Oil prices will fall further in 2027-28, limiting the scope for the likes of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain to provide fiscal support to support the recoveries in their non-oil economies.