Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The long-term legacy of the war for the Gulf The effects of the Iran war on the Gulf economies will last well beyond this year’s hit to GDP. The war is likely to incentivise efforts to raise oil supply – and not just via the Strait of Hormuz –... 16th June 2026 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What the peace deal means for the Gulf? The deal agreed over the weekend to end the war between the US and Iran will, if it holds, support a gradual recovery in the Gulf economies over the coming quarters. But the hit to output that has... 15th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Inflation pressures, pipelines and railways US President Trump declared this week that he had refrained from restarting strikes on Iran at the behest of the Gulf states in order to give more time for negotiations. But reports that Supreme... 21st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Talks at another impasse as Iran hardens stance on Strait Talks between the US and Iran have reached another impasse and it’s difficult at this stage to see where a breakthrough will come, especially as the Iranian regime appears to be hardening its stance... 14th May 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How has the war affected the Gulf’s external positions? The impact of the war on balance of payments positions across the Gulf varies by country. Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain are suffering severe blows due to the halt to their energy exports, and their... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Stalemate, swap lines and slumps Prospects for a swift end to the Iran war were dented this week as divisions within the Iranian regime hinder Tehran’s efforts to put forward a coherent, unified position in negotiations. And as a... 23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the... 21st April 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update War dealing a heavy blow to the Gulf economies Timely indicators underscore the severe hit dealt to the Gulf economies by the war, with sharp declines in oil output alongside clear weakness in non-hydrocarbon sectors. Even if the war ends soon, we... 14th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Moving towards de-escalation?, Egypt‘s fuel-saving steps The Iran war seemed to be at a tipping point this time last week and recent developments provide, in the words of China’s foreign minister, “a glimmer of hope” that things are moving towards de... 26th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict at a tipping point? The conflict in the Middle East has escalated further over the past week, with damage to energy infrastructure in the region now the key concern. Comments from QatarEnergy’s CEO that LNG export... 19th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Conflict will exert a heavy toll on the Gulf There remains enormous uncertainty over how the conflict in the Middle East will play out from here. But the scenarios we have laid out suggest the Gulf economies will almost certainly record negative... 12th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Iran war: assessing the hit to the Gulf economies This Update takes three scenarios for how the conflict in the Middle East could play out and assesses the potential impact on the Gulf economies. In all cases, these economies would probably record... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Event MENA Drop-In: The Iran conflict and the implications for Middle East economies 10th March 2026, 1:00PM GMT The Iran conflict has quickly escalated into a regional conflagration, generating significant uncertainty for economic outlooks across the Middle East.
