Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Strengthening growth and shifting alignments

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s...

4th December 2025 · 22 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Dubai real estate, Bahrain-Oman public finances, Egypt rates

The surge in prices in Dubai’s real estate sector appears to be prompting developers to take on debt to finance new projects. This echoes events prior to the crisis in 2009, but a re-run seems...

27th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with our latest forecasts and calls to reflect key developments across the region. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record very...

20th November 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

UAE keeps up Gulf AI momentum, Qatar-Egypt deal

AI-related investments in the UAE this week add to signs that the US is using access to AI technologies to take the Gulf economies away from China’s sphere of influence. It may also reflect the...

6th November 2025 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record its fastest rate of GDP...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante

On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil...

23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hamas ceasefire, oil slides, Tunisia’s unorthodoxy persists

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has, so far, remained intact, which could bring positive spillovers for the likes of Egypt and Jordan. More importantly, however, the war has fundamentally...

16th October 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

The geopolitical ramifications of the Gaza peace plan

The war in Gaza has fundamentally re-shaped geopolitics in the Middle East. Iran and Russia (and, indirectly, China) are nursing blows to their power in the region, which has created space for the US...

15th October 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf non-oil sectors end Q3 on a strong footing

Gulf non-oil sectors enjoyed a strong end to Q3 but Saudi Arabia’s recent Pre-Budget Statement for 2026 reinforced our view that non-oil growth in the Kingdom will slow over 2026-27. Elsewhere, Egypt...

6th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

OPEC+ meeting, Saudi 2026 Budget, MENA’s debt splurge

This weekend’s OPEC+ meeting is likely to see the group agree to a further unwinding of oil production cuts in November, with some suggestions it could be one of the most aggressive moves yet...

2nd October 2025 · 7 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Fiscal realities now biting in some major oil producers

The 2026 budgets announced in Russia and Saudi Arabia in the past week point to significant fiscal tightening following declines in oil revenues and budget blowouts this year. Pressures for fiscal...

2nd October 2025 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP...

26th September 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Lebanon’s debt, Saudi & Dubai real estate

Lebanon’s Eurobonds are trading at their strongest in over four years as investors’ hopes of a sovereign debt restructuring build amid the new government’s reform push. But we’d caution that, for a...

25th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Fed and the Gulf, Saudi’s GBI inclusion, BAM meeting

Central banks in the Gulf followed the Fed by cutting interest rates by 25bp, but the backdrop of lower oil prices is likely to temper the impact of looser monetary policy on credit growth. Meanwhile...

18th September 2025 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook

Regional pick up, but divergence under the surface

The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest GDP growth – outside of the post-pandemic recovery – in well over a decade over the course of 2026-27. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as...

18th September 2025 · 19 mins read