PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf

The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening before long. Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s economy is still struggling, though the PMI breakdown supports our view that the central bank will start cutting rates again later this year.

We’ll be discussing our latest EM Financial Risk Indicators in an online briefing at 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST today. Register here.