Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Central Bank of Egypt left its policy rate unchanged at 19.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting today but, so long as oil prices drop back as we anticipate, we think officials will be able to... 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE tensions, UAE-Iran trade ties, Egypt spreads Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased monitoring of financial transactions with the UAE appears to be part of growing geopolitical competition between the two countries. The macro impact should be... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July '26) The renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will set back the nascent recoveries in the Gulf economies. And the downside risks to our forecast for a ~6%... 29th July 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Back to the future The renewed attacks by the US and Iran risk prolonging the Gulf economies' downturns by pushing back recoveries in oil output and in non-oil sectors. On top of this, the risk of disruptions to... 16th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) 9th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Strait traffic, Saudi’s fiscal challenge, Morocco GDP Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to pick up and contributed to a further dip in oil prices over the past week, which feeds into our view that Saudi Arabia won't provide significant... 2nd July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June '26) The US-Iran deal will allow the Gulf economies to begin a recovery. But it will take time for oil production and other sectors, such as tourism, to recover to pre-war levels. Most growth forecasts for... 29th June 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Effects of the Iran war will be felt for years to come The re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz will trigger a recovery in the Gulf economies, but the damage already inflicted means these economies will still record sharp falls in GDP over this year as a... 23rd June 2026 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MOU and the path to recovery, Egyptian pound rallies The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and re-open the Strait of Hormuz is a major step towards a resolution of the conflict and a recovery in Gulf... 18th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly War re-escalation risk grows, Saudi GDP, Egypt inflation The recent tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran haven't derailed talks over ending the war. But the risk of a miscalculation is growing, which could trigger a return to the intense hostilities... 11th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
