Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate decreased from 13.9% y/y in July to 12.0% y/y in August, its slowest pace since March 2022, which supports our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can continue to... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ meeting, Saudi debt issuances & housing reforms We suspect that the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday will result in a decision to keep oil production unchanged in October, rather than raise production further. But the risks to oil prices are still skewed to... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Aug. ‘25) The whole economy PMIs for August strengthened a little in the Gulf states, though the surveys still suggest that activity private non-oil sectors has softened in Q3. Elsewhere, while Egypt’s PMI fell... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. ’25) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp, to 22.00%, and given our view that inflation will decline further over the rest of the year, we think... 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be... 21st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be... 14th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: improved competitiveness easing external strains The Egyptian pound has strengthened so far this year against the dollar, but by most measures the currency looks competitive. This will provide a boost to GDP growth over the coming years and reduce... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital... 7th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Aug. ’25) July’s batch of whole economy PMIs were soft across the Gulf as fiscal policy becomes less supportive of non-oil sectors. Elsewhere, Egypt’s economic recovery has continued to strengthen, supported by... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt’s gas import dependency emphasises need for reform Electricity demand in Egypt broke records this week, shining the spotlight back on to the country’s energy landscape. A collapse in domestic gas output in recent years has increased Egypt’s reliance... 31st July 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Jul. 2025) Most EM currencies have strengthened against the dollar in recent months. Limited external vulnerabilities – our aggregate EM currency crisis risk indicator remains near multi-decade lows – have... 31st July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi government debt, Egyptian pound Reports this week highlighted the recent sharp rise in Saudi government debt and, while officials are taking steps to tighten fiscal policy, we doubt that they will do enough to prevent it climbing... 24th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jul. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with... 22nd July 2025 · 1 min read
