Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (September '26) A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. Our base case is that a return to pre-war energy exports won’t take place... 29th September 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Sep.) 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline restored, Egypt's resilience The partial reopening of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline will be a relief for both global energy markets and the Kingdom's economy. The immediate downside risk to our forecast for a fall in Saudi... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf set for sluggish recovery as war rumbles on A decisive end to the Iran war is still far away and, as a result, the economic recovery in the Gulf will be slow and bumpy. A return to pre-war energy exports is unlikely until at least early next... 22nd September 2026 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly East-West pipeline, rate hikes, Morocco’s election The attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline poses a downside risk to our growth forecast. The fiscal hit could also be significant, limiting scope for a policy response to support the economy... 17th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Houthi attacks, Egypt refineries, Qatar’s budget blowout The step up in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia suggests that Iran and its proxies are trying to regain the initiative in the war. This raises the risk of a... 10th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) The surprise fall in Egypt’s headline inflation rate in August, to 14.5% y/y, means the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could still cut rates in Q4 (as we currently expect) but the latest pick up in... 10th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US-Iran strikes, bond sales, Xi in Cairo There are growing signs that the US blockade is squeezing Iran’s economy, but US and Iranian strikes this week highlight the challenge of securing a resolution to the conflict. In the meantime, the... 3rd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt at centre of US-China AI tussle, Iran-Oman deal Egypt's decision over whether to have the US or China build a data centre could have ramifications for the country’s broader ties with the two superpowers and provide a framework for other EMs facing... 27th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '26) The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi threats against Saudi Arabia will hold back a recovery in the Gulf economies. The downside risks to our forecast for a ~3% contraction in GDP... 26th August 2026 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Central Bank of Egypt left its policy rate unchanged at 19.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting today but, so long as oil prices drop back as we anticipate, we think officials will be able to... 20th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-UAE tensions, UAE-Iran trade ties, Egypt spreads Reports that Saudi Arabia has increased monitoring of financial transactions with the UAE appears to be part of growing geopolitical competition between the two countries. The macro impact should be... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi resilience, hopes for Hormuz re-opening Saudi Q2 budget data showed that high oil prices provided a major cushion for the public finances. But the oil windfall masks the underlying deterioration in the fiscal position over the last 18... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs point to a fragile recovery taking hold in the Gulf The whole economy PMIs for July show that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors from the Iran war is taking hold – although the sustainability of this hinges on the Strait of Hormuz reopening... 5th August 2026 · 3 mins read
