Dubai real estate, Bahrain-Oman public finances, Egypt rates

The surge in prices in Dubai’s real estate sector appears to be prompting developers to take on debt to finance new projects. This echoes events prior to the crisis in 2009, but a re-run seems unlikely - the economy is on a far more solid footing and the banking sector is much stronger. Elsewhere, the IMF's Article IV reports for Oman and Bahrain out this week reinforced the point we've made that Bahrain has a lot of work to do to stabilise its debt (as Oman has managed). Finally, Egypt’s central bank left interest rates on hold last Thursday and the slightly hawkish tone of the communications has led us to push back our forecast for the next rate cut to February.