Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Jul. 2024) The PBOC has lowered its short-term policy rate for the first time since last summer, in line with our expectation for a cut this quarter. Its efforts to prevent long-term yields from falling... 22nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to recovery in credit The Bank Lending Survey suggests that there was a pick-up in demand for bank loans in the second quarter particularly for residential mortgages and consumer credit. This is consistent with the... 16th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2024) May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%... 1st July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth likely to remain slow May’s data show a continued gradual increase in money and lending growth, though both remain slow. While the ECB’s loosening cycle is now underway, money and lending growth are set to remain subdued. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (June 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to... 25th June 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC: Don’t worry about the weakness of credit Governor Pan Gongsheng’s comments about PBOC bond buying and about changes to the monetary policy framework caught the headlines this week. But it was what he said about weak credit growth that caught... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update What if central banks stopped remunerating reserves? The proposal to save governments money by ending interest payments on commercial banks’ reserves is a lot more complicated than some of its advocates suggest. The extreme version could either cause... 20th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Policy easing to begin soon We expect economic growth in most countries in Asia to slow in the second half of 2024, as tighter fiscal policy, high interest rates and weaker global growth all weigh on demand. Inflation is back to... 20th June 2024 · 28 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economy in good shape as Modi 3.0 begins Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026. That would put India on course to become the world’s... 20th June 2024 · 16 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) Bank loan growth in China was the slowest on record in May, but accelerated government bond issuance helped broader credit growth edge up. Fiscal loosening should support further gains in the near... 14th June 2024 · 2 mins read