US Economics Weekly Manufacturing dragging down non-residential construction We do not expect the war in Iran to dent the data centre buildout but, with manufacturing construction investment falling sharply, we may still be overestimating the outlook for non-residential... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Credit growth remained unchanged in February with a further slowdown in bank lending growth being offset by a pickup in non-bank credit. 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Revisiting the risks around private credit Private credit funds have attracted growing scrutiny amid falling valuations and its exposure to software companies. Under a severe default scenario, losses might amount to around 0.4% of US GDP. That... 11th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai’s paradise punctured? Iran’s attacks over the past few days have struck at the heart of Dubai’s economy. The near-term hit to GDP could be larger than in other parts of the Gulf (although that will depend on the length of... 3rd March 2026 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Credit growth slipped further in January despite some renewed support from faster government borrowing. It will probably slow over the coming months, posing a downside threat to economic activity and... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia still facing elevated capacity pressures Data released this week reinforce the need for the RBA to tighten policy settings. Provisional figures suggest that private consumption growth accelerated in Q4 and is running above the pace... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2025) The ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggests that banks have become more cautious about lending to companies while consumers remain reluctant to spend. It also showed that the... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Using GPIF to stabilise JGB market not a panacea Shifting the asset allocation of Japan’s largest pension fund back towards domestic bonds could help stabilise the JGB market should yields start to surge again. However, it would come at a sizeable... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s growing banking risks don’t raise alarm bells yet Vulnerabilities in Egypt’s banking sector look high by EM standards, but there are signs that these risks should ease and the banking sector has large capital buffers. Perhaps the bigger issue is that... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Limited monetary easing won’t boost growth The PBOC has announced plans to cut interest rates on structural policy tools, and suggested broader-based policy rate cuts are on the horizon. But we doubt rate cuts will be enough to drive up loan... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE’s growth to ease but will continue to lead the Gulf The UAE’s economy enjoyed another strong year in 2025. Rising oil output will continue to support headline GDP growth over the coming quarters. And while there are signs that that activity in the rest... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec. 2025) Credit growth in China continued to slow in December, as government bond issuance decelerated. Although the PBOC is signalling that policy rate cuts are on the horizon, this is unlikely to prevent... 15th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in credit growth has further to run Private sector credit growth in South Africa has accelerated and, with further monetary easing on the cards and crowding out by the government likely to wane, we think this will continue. Stronger... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan isn’t falling behind the curve just yet We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging outlook as war in Ukraine drags on Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will... 15th December 2025 · 25 mins read
