Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar needs to keep a watchful eye over banking risks The boom in bank lending in Qatar in the 2010s has unwound so far in a relatively orderly manner. Banks are well capitalised and are able to absorb a far greater rise in non-performing loans than we... 22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response China Policy Rates (Oct. 2024) Today’s reductions to both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) continue the PBOC’s efforts to support the economy. We expect additional easing to follow in the coming quarters, but this... 21st October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) Despite monetary easing and a pick-up in government bond issuance, both broad credit and bank loan growth hit fresh lows in September. While the PBOC will continue to loosen policy, this is unlikely... 14th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) The latest data are consistent with our view that the world economy is in a soft patch. There are signs that global manufacturing is headed for recession and trade will soften. Consumers in DMs... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Credit conditions still consistent with the economy growing The Bank of England’s Q3 Credit Conditions Survey suggests house prices will rise further in Q4 and supports our view that a mild slowdown in GDP growth this year is more likely than another recession... 10th October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 24) The pivot toward stimulus reduces near-term risks and should provide some much-needed support to an economy struggling with a softening labour market and a deep property downturn. But a rebound in... 1st October 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Aug. 2024) August’s money and lending data provide further evidence that the gradual improvement in credit demand and supply in response to the falls in lending rates is supporting the economy. But the Bank of... 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Surge in serviceability-exempted loans not a big threat While banks have issued more housing loans that don’t meet APRA’s serviceability guidelines over the last couple of years, we aren’t convinced that this poses significant risks to financial stability. 30th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Stimulus timetable, bank capital injections Chinese equities have soared in response to this week's stimulus announcements, but it will take longer for the real economy to respond. While the PBOC has already reduced bank funding costs, rate... 27th September 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response Stimulus package a step in the right direction In a departure from their previous approach of drip-feeding piecemeal support measures, China’s financial regulators have just announced a coordinated package of stimulus measures. This is a step in... 24th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf’s non-oil sectors set for a slowdown Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen sharply in 2025 as oil output cuts are unwound. But lower oil prices will prompt a turn to fiscal consolidation in most of the Gulf, causing... 19th September 2024 · 20 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf? The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower... 18th September 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) Both broad credit and bank loan growth slowed in August, coming in below expectations. (See Chart 1.) While stronger government spending should give the economy a boost over the coming months, that... 13th September 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year... 10th September 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to gauge recession risk in DMs Getting an early steer on whether an economy has entered recession requires a holistic assessment of a variety of indicators to see if multiple variables are flagging recession at the same time. In... 9th September 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the... 9th September 2024 · 4 mins read