UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (May 2026) May’s money and lending data show that households continued to save a bit less to offset some of the hit to their real incomes and have delayed, or perhaps even cancelled, house purchases in response... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Growth to pick up, but imbalances will persist China’s growth should pick up over the second half of this year as fiscal support ramps up. But domestic overcapacity will remain entrenched, leaving China’s economy reliant on exports for growth. 24th June 2026 · 16 mins read
India Economic Outlook RBI will need to hike interest rates before long The energy shock has taken a toll on India’s economy but GDP growth should still average around 6.5% in 2026-27, an enviable rate by global standards. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon... 23rd June 2026 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC to narrow rate corridor, no signs of healthier credit The PBOC has announced plans to increase its control over overnight interest rates, marking another step in its efforts to adopt a more orthodox policy making approach. Still, the PBOC's multiple... 19th June 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly The PBOC can’t boost household credit demand Slowing credit growth in China is yet another sign of the dwindling consumption appetite of households. Bank lending to households has been contracting outright in recent months, even though liquidity... 12th June 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May.) The net increase in new credit jumped in May, but that just reflects the usual seasonal pattern. Year-on-year growth in aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE – the PBOC’s preferred measure of... 12th June 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Money & Lending (Apr. 2026) April’s money and lending data suggest that households are responding to the war in Iran by saving a bit less, borrowing just as much and almost carrying on regardless when it comes to housing. Even... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone bank lending likely to slow soon Lending by euro-zone banks held up well in the first two months after the Iran war began. But with confidence low, market interest rates rising and the ECB set to start tightening monetary policy next... 1st June 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (May '26) The Gulf economies are set for their steepest contraction since the early 1980s this year. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to sharp falls in hydrocarbon production, even in those countries... 19th May 2026 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The net increase in new credit slumped in April. While that partly reflects the usual seasonal pattern, year-on-year growth in aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE – the PBOC’s preferred... 14th May 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Non-bank CRE lending growing, but not a systemic risk As large banks have pulled back in recent years, non-bank lenders have accounted for an increasing share of CRE debt originations. While insurers’ lending has been conservative, debt funds and other... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China’s startling debt build-up is continuing China is now more indebted relative to its GDP than the US, euro-zone and UK and the debt burden is still rising relentlessly. The risk that runaway debt triggers a crisis in China’s state-dominated... 30th April 2026 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB Bank Lending & Consumer Expectations Surveys The ECB’s Q1 Bank Lending Survey (BLS) suggests that the negative effects of higher energy prices on economic activity in the euro-zone could be bigger than we have assumed. At the same time, the jump... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
