Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”?

The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re-finance debt issued when interest rates were much lower. The so-called “maturity wall” is larger next year, which raises the risk that bankruptcies will trend higher despite the fall in interest rates over the course of 2025. That risks volatility in credit markets, but we do not view the maturity wall as a big risk to the economy.