US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the... 18th December 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ set to hike further as business conditions strengthen The Q4 Tankan Survey struck all the right notes from the Bank of Japan’s perspective. It showed that business conditions are improving, profit margins remain elevated, and that firms are upbeat about... 15th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026 The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP... 10th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026 The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour... 10th December 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”? The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re... 9th December 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Focus ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its... 1st December 2025 · 15 mins read
Japan Economics Update Resilience of profits adds to case for tighter policy With corporate profits hitting fresh record highs, the BoJ’s concern that US tariffs will provide a major headwind to business investment and wage growth looks increasingly overdone. To be sure... 1st December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Waning support for developers may drag on construction Vanke's plan to delay repayment of an onshore bond points to fading state support for non-SOE developers. The risk this poses to financial stability is probably manageable. But it threatens to... 28th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done cutting rates this cycle With underlying inflation continuing to surprise to the upside and domestic demand being propped up by a revival in private investment, we no longer expect the RBA to loosen policy any further... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Sep 2025) September’s durable goods orders suggest investment remain resilient, despite lingering tariff uncertainty, as the AI boom drives strong spending on tech goods. 26th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (November 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth held up well in Q3, although headwinds from fiscal tightening, softer labour... 19th November 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How to think about AI investment The surge in AI investment has so far been more apparent in company reports of nominal CapEx than in real investment in the wider economy. But the latter impact is growing. And while individual... 12th November 2025 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia poised to reap benefits from AI boom Australian imports of automatic data processing machines are growing at a breakneck pace, driven by the rapid expansion of data centre construction. We believe the AI revolution will continue to... 7th November 2025 · 4 mins read
