Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

How will the Fed loosening cycle impact the Gulf?

The US Federal Reserve looks certain to start its loosening cycle this evening and, by virtue of their dollar pegs and open capital accounts, central banks across the Gulf will follow suit. Lower...

18th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone industry will continue to struggle

A large part of the decline in euro-zone industry over recent years shown by the monthly data appears to be due to mismeasurement. Nevertheless, the sector is struggling with a loss of international...

13th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Draghi & Letta proposals are no silver bullet

In principle, an increase in EU integration and cooperation, as proposed by Enrico Letta in April and Mario Draghi today, could increase output in the long run. But any progress will be slow, and the...

9th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia GDP (Q2 2024)

Although activity likely bottomed out last quarter, the ongoing weakness in private demand raises the risk that the RBA will cut rates sooner rather than later.

4th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

Durable Goods (Jul.)

The bigger than expected 9.9% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a massive rebound in aircraft orders. Excluding transport, core orders fell by 0.2% m/m in July, while...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

Savings problem to weigh on Colombia’s prospects

The prevailing view that, over the medium term, Colombia will maintain its position as Latin America’s fastest-growing major economy looks overly optimistic in light of the collapse in its savings and...

20th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the...

19th August 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget

Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things...

15th August 2024 · 6 mins read

US Economics Update

What to make of the rise in business bankruptcies?

Business bankruptcies rose further in the first half of 2024, mainly due to higher Chapter 11 filings as firms were forced to restructure their debts. It is typically the change in borrowing costs...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive

Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of...

26th July 2024 · 7 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (July 2024)

The recent set of mild inflation data and growing concerns among Fed officials about downside risks to the labour market reinforce our view that the first interest rate cut will come in September. We...

22nd July 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Consumption support still falling short

New government guidelines on how to create "new consumption scenarios" are still largely focused on supply-side reform, while little is being done to address demand weakness. Alongside a ramp-up in...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but...

25th June 2024 · 16 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (June 2024)

The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow...

24th June 2024 · 1 min read