UK Economics Update AI’s economic boost may arrive sooner than expected Recent data raise the possibility that the AI-related boost to the economy’s sustainable growth rate that we have been forecasting for the 2030s happens sooner. We’re hosting an in-person roundtable... 7th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 26) The Q3 Tankan survey showed that overall business conditions were the most favourable in decades, which should encourage the Bank of Japan to keep tightening policy at a faster pace 1st October 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rate hikes nearing their end The RBA will deliver another 25bp hike in September, given continued stickiness in underlying inflation. But unlike markets we doubt further tightening will prove necessary. With the labour market... 23rd September 2026 · 20 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by mid-2027 Japan’s economy has coped with the energy shock well and we expect GDP growth to remain solid. While next year’s sales tax cut could result in inflation falling to very low levels, underlying... 21st September 2026 · 17 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Aug. 2026) August activity data showed a modest rebound in industrial output growth last month, driven by external demand and high-tech manufacturing. A smaller contraction in infrastructure investment suggests... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Leap in margins another sign of late-stage bull market The US corporate profit share has climbed to historic highs, mainly due to soaring profitability in AI-related technology sectors. But history suggests that such rapid gains in margins are difficult... 14th September 2026 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Where to look for signs of a private investment revival Conditions for the long-awaited resurgence in private corporate investment in India are now largely in place, but tracking in real time whether it is getting under way is tricky. In this Update we... 8th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese firms continue to weather energy shock The Japanese economy has continued to shrug off the energy shock. Corporate profit margins rose to a record high in Q2, while industrial production held up well in July as supply shortages eased. That... 4th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: budget deficit casts a cloud over outperformance Poland’s economy is likely to remain a star performer in the EU this year and next, and our GDP growth forecasts are above the consensus. But the growing need for fiscal tightening after next year’s... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risk of another RBA rate hike is growing This week’s firm inflation and household spending data have raised the risk that the RBA’s tightening cycle is not yet over. But the investment picture is more mixed, while softer labour and housing... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jul. 2026) After regaining some ground at the end of Q2, China's economy lost momentum again last month. The silver lining is that the boost to manufacturing activity from AI capex continued to build, and that... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing downturn will prevent further RBA tightening With the RBA still sounding hawkish, investors think that another rate hike over the coming months is more likely than not. However, we are reluctant to bet against history as the Bank has rarely... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit & AI debt fears miss the bigger picture While private credit and debt-financing of AI investment dominate the headlines about vulnerabilities surrounding corporate debt, the big picture is that business finances are in a healthy state... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI boom will keep Korea’s GDP growth strong Korea’s chipmakers have announced huge investment plans which means that the near-term risks to our GDP forecasts are tilted to the upside. But we expect the AI boom to run out of steam in 2028 so the... 12th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery to be hampered by lending slowdown Private sector credit growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed sharply over the past year and we think it’s likely to act as a headwind to the recovery in non-oil sectors from the Iran war. 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
