Chief Economist's Note Expectations upended: Why Europe’s still stalled as America surges It wasn’t meant to turn out like this. Only a few months ago, when Donald Trump swept back into the White House, the story was one of fading US exceptionalism. The consensus view was that tariffs... 6th October 2025
Japan Economics Weekly Hawkish BoJ tilt points to October rate hike While BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged that Japan’s economy has so far shrugged off the impact of higher US tariffs, he warned that downside risks persist. Nonetheless, with the Governor admitting that... 3rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q3 25) The latest Tankan survey confirms that Japan’s economy is shrugging off trade tensions and supports our long-held view that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle this month. 1st October 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Aug) & GDP (Q2 3rd Est & Annual Revision) The mother lode of data just released suggest the economy is still doing just fine, despite the slowdown in employment growth. Last year’s GDP growth was confirmed as strong in the annual revision, Q2... 25th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A tale of two recoveries The Australian economy bounced back strongly in Q2, and it increasingly appears that the recovery has legs. In contrast, the New Zealand economy remains mired in a deep slump, and we believe that it... 25th September 2025 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly LDP to choose a new leader, growth remains healthy PM Ishiba's successor will have to grapple with a politically-challenging environment when they take office early next month. But on the plus side, they will inherit a fairly resilient economy that... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi foreign investment report, OPEC+ decision Media reports picked up on data published by Saudi Arabia this week which showed that 2024 was a record year for foreign direct investment inflows. But this didn’t take account of the fact that there... 11th September 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update AI splurge an upside risk to near-term growth The strength in IT equipment investment this year suggests the shift towards AI development and adoption is happening even sooner than our initial upbeat assumptions, posing an upside risk to the near... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export resilience is a symptom of domestic weakness We are re-sending this Weekly due to a technical error. Apologies for any inconvenience caused. Policymakers in China seem more concerned about the overcapacity problem than the trade war with the US... 5th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone resilient to tariffs but growth still sluggish Data released this morning confirmed that the euro-zone economy has been resilient so far in the face of US tariffs and related uncertainty. But the latest surveys point to weak growth in Q3. 5th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Profits will hold up better than the Bank of Japan expects While the Bank of Japan is worried that trade tensions will weigh on profits, business investment and wage growth, profits have in fact held up well so far and we expect that to remain the case going... 2nd September 2025 · 16 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (July 2025) July’s surprisingly positive durable goods orders numbers suggests that businesses may be acclimatising to tariff policy uncertainty and upping their investment. Weak capex survey intentions means we... 26th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBNZ turns dovish, Australia discusses tax reform When the RBNZ cut rates by 25bp at its meeting this week, it acknowledged that it would need to lower the policy rate all the way to 2.5% this cycle – consistent with our longstanding forecast. And... 22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
