Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
We believe the RBA will join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026, whereas the analyst consensus expects rates to remain on hold for the foreseeable future. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour market tighter than is consistent with full employment, the Bank will need to lift interest rates to prevent a continued overshoot of its inflation target. In contrast, New Zealand's output gap is set to remain deeply negative and price pressures well under control. Accordingly, we think the RBNZ won't start normalising policy until Q4 2027, which is later than most analysts expect.
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