Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Stretched affordability bodes poorly for housing cycle Although Australian house prices edged up a notch in November, we remain sceptical about prospects for a second wind in the housing cycle. Given that the RBA is unlikely to provide interest-rate... 2nd December 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Oct. 24) 2nd December 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q2 as underlying inflation softens The renewed pick-up in trimmed mean inflation in October marked the final nail in the coffin for a rate cut before year-end. To be sure, by our measures quarterly trimmed mean inflation is on track to... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Why is the RBNZ slashing rates but the RBA is not? While the RBNZ started hiking rates earlier during the recent tightening cycle than the RBA, it also lifted rates to a higher peak. The RBA tempered the degree of tightening in order to preserve the... 28th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ rate cuts could still sink the Kiwi dollar We expect the New Zealand dollar to fall against the US and Australian dollars over the next year or so, and fare worse than most – if not all – other G10 currencies. 27th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (November 2024) The RBNZ didn’t provide a clear signal about the speed of future rate cuts when it lowered the overnight cash rates by 50bp today, but we think it will deliver another 50bp cut at its February meeting 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (Oct. 24) The stagnation in headline inflation in October belies a renewed uptick in trimmed mean inflation and we’re sticking to our forecast that the RBA won’t cut interest rates before Q2 next year 27th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stillborn student cap adds to inflationary pressure The government's planned caps on foreign students won't see the light of the day because the Senate won't approve them. While foreign student commencement will still fall over the coming year, the... 22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 21st November 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ still on track to cut rates to 2.25% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 4.25%, at its meeting next week. With inflation back at target, the labour market loosening rapidly and activity in the... 20th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of... 19th November 2024 · 12 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rising household size will weigh on house prices A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low... 18th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will only start cutting rates in Q2 We learnt this week that the Australian labour market remained on solid ground in October, having loosened very little since the start of the year. The data will only reinforce the RBA's view that... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Oct. 2024) With the labour market still on sturdy ground, there is a growing risk to our forecast that the RBA will cut rates as soon as February next year. 13th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q3 2024) Wage growth eased markedly in Q3, as workers in the awards system received much smaller pay hikes than last year. Although wage growth should ease further in the coming quarters, the ongoing weakness... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
