Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure

With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive territory, so we think it will mark the end of the Bank’s tightening cycle. Once price pressures start to ease in earnest, the Bank will begin to ease policy. However, we’ve pushed back our forecast for the first rate cut to Q4 2027 from Q3 previously.