India Economics Weekly Growth risks outweighed by inflation and FX concerns The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% today and maintained a “neutral” stance. But the very strong Q1 GDP data (released subsequently), along with rising inflation and continued worries about... 5th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) Prospects for the euro-zone economy have deteriorated due to the Iran war and related energy price shock. After declining in Q1 (due to a slump in Ireland) we forecast euro-zone GDP growth to flatline... 5th June 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana resilience, SA hikes, Ethiopia elections Ghana’s improved fiscal position, alongside high gold and oil prices, underpin our above-consensus ~6% growth forecast and suggests that President Mahama’s hopes for sovereign credit rating upgrades... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Crazy Irish GDP numbers; “ethical” US tariffs? We are not worried by the downward revision to first-quarter GDP data for the euro-zone because it was entirely due to a slump in Ireland, whose national accounts data are notoriously volatile... 5th June 2026 · 5 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q1 2026) Resilient economy reinforces case for interest rate hikes The GDP data for Q1 (Q4 of FY25/26) show that India’s economy continued to grow at a very healthy clip, and more timely indicators point to... 5th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan edges closer to policy normalisation BoJ Governor Ueda strongly hinted this week that a rate hike is imminent, with policymakers growing concerned about falling behind the inflation curve. With wage growth remaining historically strong... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA alert to inflation risks even as growth softens The Australian economy slowed noticeably in Q1. Although private demand appeared resilient, thanks largely to the data-centre construction boom, the weakness in household consumption remains a cause... 5th June 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Green shoots, new pipelines High-frequency data published this week provide tentative signs that the slump in the Gulf economies has started to ease. But activity is at depressed levels and the Gulf will probably record its the... 4th June 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Services still bearing the brunt of Iran war fallout The latest batch of PMIs suggests that industry has been buoyed by precautionary stockbuilding and the AI boom, while consumer-facing services have taken a hit in many economies. At the global level... 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (May 2026) Strong services price pressures will add to Fed’s concerns The rise in the ISM Services Index in May, together with the latest rise in the manufacturing index, suggests that the economy is enjoying... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weathering the storm Past shocks – domestic and external – have tended to lead to large falls in Egypt’s currency and a sharp slowdown in growth. But the economy looks better placed to weather the current spillovers from... 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2026) While we suspect the labour market is too weak to generate big second-round effects, the inevitable rise in CPI inflation from 2.8% in April to a peak of 4.0% early next year under our baseline... 3rd June 2026 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (May 2026) The PMIs suggest that China’s economy accelerated in May, with the import price shock from the Iran war moderating, external demand holding up well and AI-related spending boosting services activity. 3rd June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q1 2026) The weakness in the Q1 GDP print belies the fact that domestic demand was still growing at a healthy clip. Even so, it increasingly looks like the RBA won’t be in a rush to resume its tightening cycle... 3rd June 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: Fiscal, monetary policy to act as a shock absorber Higher crude oil revenues are likely to allow Ghana’s government to loosen fiscal policy which, taken together with the lagged impact of the large monetary easing cycle, should support the economy. We... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: the next hurdles for unlocking EU funds The European Commission’s agreement in principle to unlock €16.4bn of frozen EU funds marks a major step forward for Hungary and would significantly improve the economic outlook. But disbursement is... 2nd June 2026 · 3 mins read
