Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (September) The rebound in German industrial production in September reversed only a fraction of August’s fall and left output still extremely weak. The poor outlook for industry is a key reason why we expect... 6th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 25) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 6th November 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Oct. 2025) The broad-based strength in October’s ISM services survey was overshadowed by the increase in the prices paid index to a three-year high, leaving it consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation rising... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Consumption won’t fall off a cliff Fears that weak payroll gains will cause a sharp slowdown in consumption growth over the next year are overblown. The immigration crackdown will prevent wage growth from slowing much further, and... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia GDP (Q3 2025) Official figures released today showed that Indonesia’s GDP growth stood at 5.0% y/y in Q3, but we don’t have much faith in the data – growth has been close to 5% for the past few years. Our... 5th November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What’s driving Australia’s productivity slump? The main factors behind the ongoing weakness in productivity are the demise of the country’s mining sector, a dearth of business investment and a post-pandemic surge in net migration. The latter has... 5th November 2025 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Recession fears overdone but growth to stay weak The recent resurgence of recession fears in Mexico appears overblown to us, but there’s no doubt that the economy is struggling. While most attribute the weakness to higher tariffs, tight fiscal... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Oct. 2025) October’s batch of whole economy PMIs for the region showed a pick-up, suggesting that non-oil private sectors in the Gulf have continued to fare better than expected amid the backdrop of low oil... 4th November 2025 (Updated 5th November 2025) · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Slow going for EM manufacturers Although the EM manufacturing PMI dipped in October, the index remains close to its highest level since the start of the year. Even so, China’s industrial sector has lost momentum recently and the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct. 2025) The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Support for the auto sector must shift up a gear Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s immigration boom set to continue While other major European countries have taken some steps to limit immigration, Spain has liberalised its immigration rules further this year. So we think immigration to Spain will remain very high... 3rd November 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The weak manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe in October, at face value, signal further difficulties for the region’s industrial sectors. But the PMIs haven’t been the most reliable guide to the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) Recent developments reinforce the divergent outlooks for the Antipodean economies. The RBA has cut rates by just 75bp so far. Given the relative resilience of the Australian economy and ongoing signs... 3rd November 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asia Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade (October) The October PMI readings for most countries in Asia remained consistent with weak manufacturing activity. We expect economic growth in the region to soften in the near term and, with inflation likely... 3rd November 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Monthly Household Spending Indicator (Sep. 25) Notwithstanding the slowdown in household spending last quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. We don't expect rate cuts to be on the agenda before the... 3rd November 2025 · 2 mins read
