Europe Economics Weekly Rebound in energy prices not yet a major worry The rebound in energy prices following the breakdown in the US-Iran ceasefire is not big enough to change our view that the ECB has probably finished its hiking “cycle”. Meanwhile, we think President... 10th July 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Tentative housing recovery a positive sign for wider economy We still think CPI inflation will rise from 2.8% in May to a peak of around 3.5% in early 2027 and that the resulting drag on real activity has yet to come. But tentative signs of a turnaround in the... 10th July 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MoU on the rocks, Saudi-UAE tensions, Egypt state control The US-Iran memorandum of understanding has come under further strain this week, raising the risk that the recovery in the Gulf economies gets derailed. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Saudi... 9th July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle will be gradual The RBNZ’s decision to kick off its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike today came as little surprise. While the Bank made clear that further increases are likely, its emphasis on returning policy only... 8th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (July) Despite a slump in business and consumer surveys since the start of the Iran war, economic activity seems to have held up quite well. The risks to our forecast that growth stalls in Q2 are firmly on... 7th July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (May 2026) Surge in trade surplus entirely down to price effects The further improvement in Canada’s goods trade balance to a four-year high was not as good as it looks, as total export volumes were essentially... 7th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s medium-term prospects brightening The fallout from the energy shock will delay but not derail a cyclical recovery in South Africa. Growth is likely to accelerate more than most expect in 2027-28 and this will be accompanied by a much... 7th July 2026 · 14 mins read
India Economics Update AI, the data centre build out and India’s economy Much of the discourse on the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on India’s economy is framed around the disruption to the services sector, but AI also requires a large amount of investment in... 7th July 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys highlight vulnerability outside of oil sector The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys point to an economy tarnished by the oil price shock, with improvements in activity isolated to the oil sector. Activity in the non-oil economy should... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jun. 2026) Inflation pressures softening, albeit slowly The fall in both the ISM services and manufacturing prices paid indices in June brings our weighted index across the two sectors to a four-month low of 69... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Will Germany's reform plans spark an economic recovery? 16th July 2026, 3:00PM BST A series of tax, pension and labour market reforms has raised hopes that Germany's new government is finally tackling the structural problems holding back the economy.
Latin America Economics Update Brazil rates: too much caution now priced in? Strong GDP growth and rising inflation have raised the bar for further interest rate cuts in Brazil, and we expect a pause in the cycle later this year, with just one or two more 25bp cuts over the... 6th July 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Focus AI and the UK Economy: Early signs, bigger gains ahead AI is starting to influence the economy, but so far this has been confined to a few sectors and been too small to show up in overall GDP, investment, employment or productivity. But if we’re right in... 6th July 2026 · 18 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2026) May’s increase in euro-zone retail sales volumes shows that consumers kept on spending despite the drop in confidence and real incomes in Q2. It also reinforces our view that the impact of the jump in... 6th July 2026 · 2 mins read
