Global Economics Update PMIs show price pressures easing outside the US The latest flash PMIs point to weak activity and a softening of price pressures in advanced economies outside the US. But the surveys suggest that tariffs are already having an inflationary impact in... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Global Inflation Watch: Disinflation to continue outside the US Inflation has fallen further towards central banks’ targets and we expect it to remain subdued across most of the world. Tariffs will cause a temporary uplift in the US. But elsewhere, their economic... 22nd May 2025 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (May 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy... 22nd May 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 2025) The euro-zone’s flash PMIs for May suggest that manufacturing output continues to be supported by the front-running of US tariffs. But the bigger picture is that the services sector weakened... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 25) The ongoing weakness in activity, coupled with softer price pressures, will keep the Bank of Japan in wait and watch mode in the near term. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (May 2025) The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (April 25) With US tariffs weighing on Japanese exports, net trade will continue to act as a drag on activity in the near term. 21st May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q1 2025) The stronger-than-expected 0.7% q/q expansion in Chile’s economy in Q1 on the back of robust domestic demand supports our view that Chile’s central bank will leave its policy rate on hold for a bit... 19th May 2025 · 2 mins read
