Falling retail sales highlight fragility of the economy Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said that the figures provided “further evidence that the economy had very little momentum at the end of last year, and at the margin it... 17th January 2025 · The Times
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: The surprising coming shift in UK/US yields A more favourable outlook for inflation in the UK than in the US suggests to us that the bigger falls in UK gilt yields than US yields this week will continue throughout 2025. If we’re right, that... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in industrial production in December is consistent with the recent improvement in the survey evidence. However, we do not think this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery in the... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Higher energy prices; good news on EZ consumption? Recent moves in oil and natural gas markets mean that inflation might be a bit higher this year than we previously assumed, but we still expect it to be around 2%. There have also been some tentative... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2025) The latest data suggest that resilient consumer spending supported GDP growth in the US towards the end of last year, while activity in other advanced economies remained weak. Industry continues to... 17th January 2025 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia Weekly: Korea’s political crisis, BI’s surprise cut, Trump and Asia There are growing signs that the economy in Korea is being affected by the political crisis. This is one of the key reasons why we think the central bank will resume its easing cycle soon, following... 17th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, CEE Forum The ceasefire deal agreed between Israel and Hamas this week will, if it sticks, lead to a sustained improvement in the outlook for growth, inflation and the public finances in Israel. We also outline... 17th January 2025 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response China GDP (Q4) & Activity (Dec. 2024) The economy ended 2024 on a stronger note, thanks to tailwinds from recent policy easing. Increased fiscal spending should continue to provide a near-term prop to activity, but this won’t prevent... 17th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel after the war: what comes next? The Israeli cabinet’s decision to delay a vote on approving the ceasefire with Hamas adds a high degree of uncertainty as to whether it will take effect on Sunday, as intended. If a ceasefire can... 16th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: GNU has tough task to realise economic potential Six months since its formation, South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) has fostered a lot of goodwill in the market. Loadshedding is seemingly a thing of the past, logistics constraints... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Nov. 2024) While the smaller-than-expected 0.1% m/m rebound in GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast +0.2% m/m) offset the 0.1% m/m decline in activity in October, it’s clear that the economy has a bit less... 16th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the... 16th January 2025 · 1 min read
