Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Strong H1, additional US tariff comes in, Modi-Xi meeting The strength of the Q2 GDP data leaves the economy on course to grow by 7% this year, but it is facing a more challenging 2026 as punitive US tariffs hit. Geopolitics will dominate the headlines next... 29th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Uncertainty is so far a small drag on global investment The unprecedented levels of trade uncertainty brought about by US tariffs appear to have had only a limited impact on investment so far. Uncertainty has persisted and our model indicates that there... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa SWIFT ban? Tanzania election News this week that South Africa's government is evaluating the risk that it might be banned from the SWIFT messaging system is alarming. And while such an outcome seems extreme, this tail risk... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Worse to come for Swiss GDP, French yields to rise While Swiss GDP grew at a decent rate in the first half of the year, the delay in agreeing a trade with the US means that a contraction in Q3 would not be surprising. But we still think that a deal... 29th August 2025 · 8 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q2 2025) The surprise acceleration in India’s GDP growth in Q2 means that the economy is still on course to expand by a world-beating 7% this year, despite the upcoming hit from punitive US tariffs. 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China spurns Nvidia as it plans domestic AI boom Rather than welcoming improved access to Nvidia chips, Chinese officials are discouraging purchases and focusing on boosting domestic chip output. This dovetails with a wider AI+ plan, fleshed out... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging signs of economic turnaround in Korea The monthly activity data released over the past week suggest that Korea’s economy made a decent start to the third quarter. Stronger consumption and rising government spending should support growth... 29th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (July 25) The July activity data were a mixed bag but on balance suggest that the economy will lose momentum this quarter. 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariff rate appears manageable Estimates from the US International Trade Commission (USITC) suggest that Canadian exporters faced an average tariff rate of just 2.5% in June. Even if that figure understates the bill, as we suspect... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
