UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Past the worst? The further fall in GDP in May provided yet another excuse to talk down the UK economy. But there is some evidence that we are past the worst and the situation will improve from here (or, at the least... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone economy benefiting from tariffs The media focus this week has continued to be on EU-US trade negotiations as the pause on Liberation Day tariffs was extended beyond the 9th July deadline and President Trump threatened to send a... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Stalling trade negotiations may delay BoJ rate hikes We still expect a trade deal with the US to be agree upon after the Upper House elections on 20 th July. However, given that very few countries have managed to reach an agreement so far, the... 11th July 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2025) The hangover from the burst of activity in Q1 ahead of rises in US tariffs and UK stamp charges continued in May with GDP falling by 0.1% m/m. This leaves GDP on track to rise by just 0.1% q/q in Q2... 11th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable is Ireland to Trump’s policies? There are risks to the Irish economy from potential US tax policy changes but we think they are not as large as they first appear. The country’s large pharmaceutical sector should be fairly resilient... 10th July 2025 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil faces Trump’s fire President Trump’s threat to put a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil is less about trade disputes and more about political disagreements, and so it’s harder to see an off-ramp for Brazil compared with... 10th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US tariffs add to headwinds facing Chile’s copper sector Chile’s economy is the most exposed globally to US copper import tariffs. But while the impact would probably be small, it would add to deep-seated problems facing the copper sector. Register here to... 9th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) We think the euro-zone economy will not grow at all in Q2 and Q3 as the first-quarter boost from tariff front-running will not be repeated. Looking through the tariff disruption, growth will be... 8th July 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tariff uncertainty may delay BoJ rate hikes until 2026 Our base case remains that Japan will reach a deal with the US to fend off the threatened 25% US tariff. If that deal is reached soon and includes no or only a modest increase in the US tariff rate... 8th July 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Labour market cracking The falls in employment triggered by the Chancellor’s rises in National Insurance Contributions for employers and the minimum wage have increased our confidence that it is only a matter of time before... 7th July 2025 · 18 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus The Trump-Petro rift and the risks for Colombia Colombia’s shift from being a staunch US ally to embracing China has been one of the starkest geopolitical moves of the last few years. This may put Colombia into President Trump’s crosshairs for... 7th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE to top the Gulf growth chart another year running The UAE’s non-oil sector has seen a strong run of growth recently and we think that robust activity in tourism and retail sectors as well as solid credit growth means that non-oil GDP growth will... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The better-than-expected German industrial production figures for May are partly due to continued tariff front-running in the pharmaceuticals sector, but output in other sectors is also proving more... 7th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s export success only partly due to rerouting Vietnam’s US-bound exports have surged since the US imposed very high tariffs on imports from China. While the export figures are overstating the benefits to Vietnam’s economy due to a surge in... 7th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s communist candidate, Mexico’s weak economy The victory for communist candidate, Jeannette Jara, in the Chilean governing coalition’s presidential primary election was received warmly by markets – her presence on the ballot is seen as... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next? The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
