US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Dec 2025) The continued fall in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated over the next few months, but heading back down in the right direction... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economy post-Maduro: some lessons from history It’s still far too early to say if Venezuela’s post-Maduro government will seek to reverse the past few decades of economic mismanagement. But if it does, the experience from countries in Eastern... 7th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (January 2026) The latest data suggest that the global economy lost some momentum in Q4. Industrial activity appears to be softening, while global trade – which has held up well despite US tariffs – fell in October... 7th January 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: pick-up in credit growth has further to run Private sector credit growth in South Africa has accelerated and, with further monetary easing on the cards and crowding out by the government likely to wane, we think this will continue. Stronger... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Middle East & North Africa PMIs (Dec. 2025) December’s batch of PMIs suggested that non-oil sectors in the Gulf softened at the end of last year and we expect this continue over the course of 2026. And while Egypt’s PMI fell back, it continued... 6th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec. 2025) The modest decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in December confirms that the sector was struggling for momentum around the turn of the year, but we doubt that this will be enough to prevent overall... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Venezuela? Venezuela’s economy has suffered one of the largest contractions in GDP during peacetime which in part reflects woes in its oil sector, but also the undermining of private businesses and the... 5th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia PMIs, Korea Trade (Dec) & Singapore GDP (Q4) The December Manufacturing PMI readings for most Asian economies remain consistent with generally soft manufacturing activity. However, the PMIs have recently been a poor guide to the hard activity... 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Dec 25) While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite... 31st December 2025 · 0 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Dec. 2025) The decline in the RatingDog services PMI adds to evidence that momentum in the service sector remains weak, though this didn't prevent a slight improvement in the composite PMI. The partial recovery... 31st December 2025 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Industrial outperformance continues Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth picked up in November as export strength helped to boost industrial activity. But, while China’s exports have proved resilient in the face of US tariffs... 30th December 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Nov. 2025) At first glance, the November activity data appear to be a mixed bag. However, a look under the hood suggests that the economy is poised to rebound firmly from its Q3 contraction. 26th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
