US Economics Weekly August jobs report just about enough for the Fed The data releases this week did not signal a clear winner in the 25bp versus 50bp cut debate, but the speech from Governor Christopher Waller nonetheless suggests that the small improvement in the... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees... 6th September 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Manufacturing recession possible, full recession unlikely We don’t think the lingering concerns about the health of the US economy mean that the chances of the UK economy slipping back into recession are much higher. Instead, the fading drag from higher... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GDP and surveys, FOCAC concludes The slump in the South African manufacturing PMI provided some worrying signs that the rebound seen in the Q2 GDP figures didn’t last. But the PMI appears to be an outlier; other survey data paint a... 6th September 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s optimistic projections, Glapinski’s guidance Turkey’s medium-term economic programme unveiled this week showed that the government remains committed to the orthodox policy shift. But its projections for a “goldilocks” scenario in which the... 6th September 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economy in midst of mild slowdown In light of the latest activity data, we’ve made slight downward revisions to our GDP growth forecasts for India – we now think the economy will grow by 6.5% in 2024 (our previous forecast was 7.0%)... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Jul.) The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical... 6th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to hold the line despite consumption squeeze National accounts data published this week showed that the Australian economy slowed to a grind last quarter, while private consumption fell outright. However, we suspect that the RBA will take that... 6th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024) O ur Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess... 5th September 2024 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Risks to the global economy: your questions answered We held online Drop-In sessions earlier this week to discuss the outlook for major DM and EM economies and the risks that they face as we look forward to 2025. (See a recording here.) This Update... 5th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024) Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace. 5th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will deliver final rate hike later this year The economy is on the mend and underlying inflation seems to be levelling off around the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. Accordingly, we still expect a final rate hike in October. But as inflation falls... 5th September 2024 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Update Is the manufacturing sector signalling recession? While the risks of a more severe downturn in industry have increased in advanced economies, we still expect manufacturing output to slow rather than crash in the coming months. Even if output were to... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could the stock market ride out a recession? Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks... 4th September 2024 · 4 mins read
