Africa Economics Weekly SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Majority rules Prime Minister Mark Carney was swift to put his newfound majority to use this week, announcing a suspension of the federal gasoline tax for the next few months. That will not have a huge impact, but... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase... 17th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA caught between a rock and a hard place Although business confidence in Australia has plunged in the wake of the Iran war, indicators of underlying activity remain fairly resilient. With capacity pressures elevated and inflation risks... 17th April 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Iran war to boost UK prices for flights, flowers and food Outside of fuel and utilities, the prices of flights, other forms of transport, flowers and food are likely to rise the most in response to the Iran war. In our baseline scenario, food price inflation... 16th April 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (April 2026) The war in Iran will lead to sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf economies and weigh on energy importers, especially in Asia. Overall, though, so long as the conflict ends relatively soon in line with our... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EZ headline inflation to rise further, core little changed Headline inflation in the euro-zone rose to 2.6% in March and in our baseline forecast it increases to 3% in April then remains just above that level over the rest of the year. This increase largely... 16th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How could non-energy shortages affect supply chains? In the coming months, depressed shipments of non-energy commodities through the Strait of Hormuz risk disrupting some supply chains using aluminium, plastics and synthetic rubber. The risks are... 16th April 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Apr. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Many major Latin American economies have received a terms-of-trade boost from the... 16th April 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Gauging the early inflation impact of the energy shock The CPI figures for March show that, so far, the energy price shock has had a relatively limited impact on EM inflation. In part, that’s because of energy subsidies (particularly in Asia) and the... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Core PCE-CPI inflation gap to narrow later this year Most of the factors causing the unusual situation of core PCE inflation being higher than core CPI inflation should reverse by the turn of the year, with core PCE inflation falling while core CPI... 15th April 2026 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Weak monsoon would compound Iran war impact The weaker-than-normal monsoon that is now being forecast by experts for this year threatens to compound the impact of the Middle East conflict on India’s economy. Crop yields could come under... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar 2026) After a strong couple of months, the downside surprise in core producer prices in March offers some encouragement for the Fed that pipeline inflation pressures are not spiralling out of control... 14th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update High energy prices a double-edged sword Latin America as a whole is a net beneficiary from higher energy prices, but the terms of trade boost is limited (or in Mexico’s case more than offset) by a lack of domestic refining capacity. The... 13th April 2026 · 5 mins read
