UK Economics Weekly BoE has to work harder to quash inflation It’s become clearer that domestic inflation isn’t going to fall while economic activity is strengthening. As such, we now think that the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates further, from... 26th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Could May euro-zone inflation move the dial on rate expectations? 1685620800 As the stagflationary drumbeats get louder, will flash May HICP for the euro-zone be the next inflation release to spook markets?
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Electricity will become a drag on inflation next year Electricity inflation will become the highest since the 1980s this year, but with generation costs having plunged, we’ve pencilled in a big drop next year. Those movements probably won’t affect... 26th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Wage growth too low to sustain higher inflation There’s little reason to expect above-target inflation to be sustained in Japan. Wage growth remains far below the levels seen in other developed economies and remains far too low to generate second... 26th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (May. 2023) Tokyo inflation fell to 3.2% in May largely due to a sharp fall in energy inflation, but inflation excluding fresh food and energy ticked up due to faster gains in “core” goods prices. We still expect... 26th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Book Latest EM elections raise policy risks The results of elections in major EMs over the past month have increased macroeconomic policy risks. Most notably in Turkey, President Erdogan now has the edge ahead of a second-round presidential... 25th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2023) The surprise fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.1% y/y in the first half of May, coming alongside this week’s approval of the new fiscal framework in the lower house of congress, suggests that the... 25th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East Chart Book Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Canada Chart Book Too soon to sound the all-clear for construction The turnaround in the housing market, with sales and prices rebounding in April, has raised hopes that construction will hold up despite elevated borrowing costs. Media reports suggest that buyer... 24th May 2023 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates for longer make a recession more likely The most troubling aspect of April’s inflation data, released earlier today, was evidence that price pressures are becoming increasingly domestically generated. Accordingly, we now expect the Bank of... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM labour markets still going strong EM labour markets have shown relatively little sign of adjustment in response to the recent weakening of growth. That’s likely to keep wage growth uncomfortably strong in Central Europe and Latin... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Chart Book Slowing growth, falling inflation and dovish central banks A strong rebound in tourism provided a big boost to growth in Thailand and Hong Kong last quarter, which along with China, were the three best-performing countries in Emerging Asia in Q1. But for the... 24th May 2023 · 15 mins read
