Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB lower target and nationalisation, Ghana inflation Data released this week showing a further decline in inflation expectations in South Africa provide further ammunition for those arguing that the time is right for the SARB’s inflation target to be... 4th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: NBP delivers dovish surprise, could the BoI be next? The 25bp cut by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) this week caught many – but not us – off guard, and we think that two further interest rate cuts lie in store over the rest of this year. Meanwhile... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Could the euro’s strength prompt a July cut? With the euro going from strength to strength and energy prices having dropped back the case could arguably be made for the ECB to cut rates in July and some policymakers have sounded concerned about... 4th July 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Hopes grow over strong monsoon and US trade deal The southwest monsoon has fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the... 4th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Q1 data wrap up for Saudi Arabia and Egypt The recent deterioration in Saudi Arabia’s current account deficit is likely to continue on the back of lower oil receipts. While large FX buffers will prevent major macro strains for now, the Kingdom... 3rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (June) The larger-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in June, to 35.0%, supports our view that the central bank will restart its easing later this month. We maintain our forecast for the one-week repo... 3rd July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (June) Headline inflation rose slightly in Switzerland in June, but we expect it will remain around zero, or just below, for the rest of the year. Persistently weak inflation is likely to encourage the SNB... 3rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Weak growth to (eventually) prompt more rate cuts The economy faces a period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1% annualised on... 2nd July 2025 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ on pause in July, but easing has further to run With activity having rebounded strongly in Q1 and headline inflation firming up, the RBNZ is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.25% next week. However, we’re not convinced that the economy has... 2nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
RBA Watch RBA Watch: RBA to frontload easing as downside risks grow We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25bp, to 3.60%, at its meeting ending on 8th July. With growth set to remain below trend and underlying inflation on track to fall further, we see little reason for... 2nd July 2025 · 8 mins read
China Economics Update PBOC turns less dovish despite deflation concerns One might have thought that fading concern about the exchange rate and growing concern about deflation would provide the perfect moment for the PBOC to step up monetary easing. But the Bank’s latest... 2nd July 2025 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply tariff price pressures only a US story The latest PMIs suggest that while global industrial activity gained some momentum at the end of Q2, this will probably prove short lived. Meanwhile, the surveys continue to suggest that tariffs are... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (June) The weak batch of June manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe – and in particular some of the forward-looking components of the surveys – paint a downbeat view for industrial activity across the... 1st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Global economy to weather geopolitical headwinds We expect global GDP growth to slow a touch in the next couple of years, as President Trump’s policies weigh on US activity and fiscal policy provides less of a prop to growth in China. India will be... 30th June 2025 · 45 mins read
