US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update Will food inflation fall in DMS next year? Food CPI inflation has been elevated in several advanced economies in recent months, namely Japan, the UK and Canada, but we expect price pressures to ease in most cases. A combination of lower... 22nd December 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Distorted data makes it hard to read the macro tea leaves The final full week of the year delivered a smorgasbord of shutdown-affected data releases, some fresher than others and some downright rotten. We doubt this new batch of data will have any major... 19th December 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly 2026 – Key themes and possible surprises We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of labour shortages despite falling population Despite the record decline in population in the third quarter, lower immigration does not appear to be leading to labour shortages. That provides some support to our view that the Bank of Canada will... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB looking on the bright side The ECB was in a slightly festive mood this week as officials nudged up their forecasts for economic growth and inflation. We think this is only partly justified as we are sceptical about President... 19th December 2025 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s rate hike risks, Copom, Kast’s victory While our base case is that Colombia's central bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its meeting later today, the further deterioration in the fiscal picture and the prospects of a large... 19th December 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ signals additional rate hikes are in the pipeline When the Bank of Japan delivered a much-anticipated 25bp hike at its meeting today, it signalled a willingness to tighten policy further. With wage-price dynamics set to remain favourable, we expect... 19th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (November 2025) With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates... 19th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI investment boom to power economy We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on... 18th December 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB still neutral on interest rates The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026 The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower... 18th December 2025 · 14 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Nov 2025) According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of 0.30% m/m over the... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Muddling through The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will... 18th December 2025 · 45 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (December 2025) Today’s ECB press release suggests that the strength of recent economic data has not changed policymakers’ assessment of the monetary policy outlook. Changes in interest rates early next year look... 18th December 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the... 18th December 2025 · 1 min read
