Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2026) The world economy has gained momentum in Q3. Business surveys have improved, trade is booming amid the AI buildout, and consumption has been resilient to high energy prices. Meanwhile, jobs growth has... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How would a diesel export ban affect Latin America? A US diesel export ban would be particularly disruptive for Latin America as the region is reliant on the US for supply and has large diesel-intensive sectors, including road freight transport... 28th September 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Near-term pain, better times ahead The ongoing energy price shock is a further temporary setback to the UK economy rather than a permanent blow. If we’re right that over the next year the economy and labour market won’t be strong... 28th September 2026 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth slowed further to just 1.3% y/y in August. This reflects lingering typhoon disruptions and continued weakness in fiscal spending, with local governments... 28th September 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ethiopia conflict, Nigeria cuts rates, SA hikes This week’s renewed fighting raises the risk of Ethiopia sliding back into civil war, threatening what had up to now looked like strong growth prospects. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s large 350bp rate cut... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BanRep to hike, Mexican growth, Brazil’s election race The recent global bond market sell-off and rise in risk premia on Colombian assets is likely to shift BanRep's board in a more hawkish direction at next Wednesday's meeting. We now expect the central... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Further diesel shock on the way? President Trump’s proposed ban on diesel exports has the potential to cause another diesel shock in Europe in the coming weeks – pushing prices up by as much as another 50%. While we suspect any ban... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Near-term relief but headwinds remain Stronger fiscal spending should lift growth over the final months of the year. But we expect growth to slow further over the medium term. 25th September 2026 · 16 mins read
India Economics Weekly Power struggles Coal stocks at India’s power plants have plummeted in recent months as strong electricity demand and monsoon disruption have squeezed supplies. This poses a downside risk to growth and an upside risk... 25th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AI boost to productive capacity remains elusive We share RBA Governor Bullock’s view that the AI boom is currently doing more to boost demand than the economy’s supply side. With business surveys also suggesting that price pressures remain elevated... 25th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update How China’s export surge has influenced DM inflation China’s influence on headline inflation in advanced economies has been much smaller than is often assumed, given the dominant weight of services in consumer spending. But its surging exports have had... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Investors expecting too many hikes from the ECB The euro-zone economy is likely to continue growing at around its trend rate of 1% over the next year or two. Among the largest countries, Germany, France and Italy will grow at a modest pace while... 24th September 2026 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB likely to sit this tightening cycle out The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today was in line with economists’ and investors’ expectations. But in contrast to the prevailing view in the market that the Bank will hike rates at... 24th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB hikes, but that’s probably the end of the cycle The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) chose to restart monetary tightening with a 25bp hike to 7.25% today, but the commentary suggests that this hiking cycle may already be over. Higher energy prices... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
