Europe Rapid Response Germany, France & Italy Flash Inflation (April) National data published so far suggest that euro-zone inflation remained at 2.2% in April, and that core inflation probably rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. (Euro-zone data due on Friday 2 nd May). But with... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Healthy monsoon would boost India’s economy A robust monsoon this year – as predicted by experts – wouldn’t have as big an impact on India’s economy as it would have had a couple of decades ago. But it could boost employment and energy... 30th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Flash CPI (Apr.) The larger-than-expected fall in Polish inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in April, is probably enough to tip the balance at the central bank towards restarting the monetary easing cycle next week. We are now... 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Trump, the global economy and the next 100 days President Trump’s first 100 days in office have brought substantial shifts in US policy. The next 100 will start to reveal whether his presidency is causing a realignment of the global economy. There... 29th April 2025 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (April 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (April 2025) The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 30th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Spain & Sweden GDP (Q1) Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in Q1, we think... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting... 28th April 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s rent inflation about to take off? Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariffs may cause EZ GDP to flatline in Q2 and Q3 Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast... 25th April 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Are the markets expecting too many rate cuts? While the deteriorating outlook for activity increases the chances of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates at its recent pace of one 25 basis point cut every quarter, which translates... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
