US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly AGOA extended, Kenya and Uganda hold rates The African Growth and Opportunity Act took another step towards being extended this week, providing further evidence that Africa is emerging from the latest US trade actions relatively unscathed... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Heatwaves pose bigger risks to inflation than activity Heatwave-related impacts on near-term activity are likely to be sector-specific, short-lived, and therefore have only a small influence on aggregate GDP. This summer’s scorching temperatures pose a... 14th August 2026 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Russian oil imports surge, inflation expectations rising The goods trade data for July released this week show that Russia now accounts for more than half of India’s crude oil imports, the highest share on record. But that economic relationship could be... 14th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stars are aligining for a September BoJ hike The Bank of Japan’s July Summary of Opinions suggests that the Board is increasingly open to stepping up the pace of tightening. With producer and import-price data pointing to persistent and broad... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran economy under pressure, Egypt rate cuts coming US efforts to squeeze the Iranian economy via the blockade are having some effect, but it remains uncertain whether this will be enough to result in larger concessions from the Iranian regime... 13th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM wage pressures easing, but pockets of concern EM labour market conditions have softened further this year, with wage growth now back to or below pre-pandemic rates in many places. Inflationary pressures stemming from labour markets have faded... 13th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jul 2026) The PPI data, together with the CPI data released yesterday, point to a 0.16% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in July. That would be marginally lower than the target consistent rate and, on the back... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s inflation outlook still benign South Africa’s inflation figures for July, due next Wednesday, are likely to show a temporary drop (probably to 4.3%) and the headline rate is likely to rise back to around 5% by early 2027. But we... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul 2026) The 0.21% m/m rise in core CPI in July does not really swing the debate for either the doves or the hawks on the FOMC, with our preliminary estimate ahead of the PPI data tomorrow pointing to a... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Jul. 2026) The drop in Brazilian inflation in July, to 4.4% y/y, leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle with a 25bp cut at its next meeting in September. 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s economy still struggling to rebalance While Turkey has come through the energy shock without major balance of payments strains, the trade-off facing policymakers between reducing inflation and restoring external balance is getting starker... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA retains hawkish bias, but next move will be a cut While the RBA’s decision to leave rates unchanged today was widely expected, the Board took pains to reiterate that it remains prepared to tighten policy further if needed. However, despite its tough... 11th August 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Deflationary pressures loom again The m/m declines in both consumer and producer prices in July largely reflect the pullback in global oil prices. But falling prices also underscore that domestic deflationary pressures remain... 10th August 2026 · 5 mins read
