Emerging Europe Chart Book
Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price...
Latin America Data Response
The stronger-than-expected Mexican inflation figure of 8.8% y/y in the first two weeks of September, coming alongside the hawkish Fed decision yesterday, means that we now think Banxico will raise...
RBI Watch
We expect the MPC to continue frontloading policy tightening with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on Friday 30th September. Beyond next week, we...
Australia & New Zealand Chart Book
The 1.7% q/q rise in New Zealand’s production GDP and the 0.9% q/q rise in Australia’s GDP in Q2 were among the strongest increases among major advanced economies. (See Chart 1.) However, GDP growth...
India Chart Book
The RBI this month asked four public-sector banks to trial its central bank digital currency (CBDC) before year-end, keeping to the timeline that it set out when plans were first announced in the FY22...
Africa Data Response
The fall in inflation in South Africa, to 7.6% y/y in August, marked the first sign that price pressures are turning a corner. But we doubt this will be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to scale...
US Chart Book
The Fed looks set to deliver a third consecutive 75bp rate hike tomorrow, but if we’re right that inflation will fall back soon, officials will quickly pivot to much smaller hikes. The continued drop...
Canada Data Response
The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August suggest that the Bank of Canada will enact a smaller interest rate hike in October, particularly with the labour market now...
Canada Rapid Response
Japan Data Response
Headline inflation jumped in August to yet another three-decade high and it still has a stretch higher to climb. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy...
Japan Economics Rapid Response
Latin America Economics Weekly
The commitment of Colombia’s new administration to address costly energy subsidies is the fiscally responsible thing to do, but it will come at the expense of exacerbating the country’s inflation...
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly
The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will...
Emerging Europe Economics Rapid Response
Euro-zone Data Response
Final inflation data for August confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While energy and food inflation are particularly high, measures of underlying and domestic inflation are...
