Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing... 31st October 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France & Spain: same budget impasse, diverging debt Governments in France and Spain are both struggling to get 2026 budgets through parliament and significant fiscal consolidation is unlikely in either country. But while France’s debt ratio will trend... 31st October 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (October 2025) The small drop back in inflation in October was expected and was driven by a further fall in energy and food inflation. We think both headline and core inflation are likely to fall below 2% in the... 31st October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ on course for January rate hike While the Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged this week, Governor Ueda signaled that the Board won’t wait much longer before resuming its tightening cycle. Indeed, with structural labour... 31st October 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on an extended pause, but easing cycle not over With underlying inflation in Australia having surprised materially to the upside in Q3, the RBA is all but certain to leave rates unchanged next week. However, unlike several other analysts we're not... 31st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to hold steady Norway’s economic data have been a touch weaker than Norges Bank expected recently, but not by enough to prompt a rate cut next week. We’re forecasting the next cut in March 2026. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB giving nothing away The ECB’s decision to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.0% and offer no guidance on future rate decisions was as expected. The Bank is likely to take the same approach at forthcoming meetings too... 30th October 2025 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 25) While growth picked up in Q3, our China Activity Proxy still suggests that the economy is expanding at a much weaker pace than official figures indicate. Export growth has continued to hold up well in... 30th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that growth in the region as a whole held up relatively well at the start of Q4. But there has been... 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3 2025) & ESI (October 2025) Euro-zone GDP growth remained fairly slow in Q3, and October’s economic sentiment indicator was consistent with a similar pace of growth at the start of Q4. 30th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to accelerate over the next couple of years supported... 29th October 2025 · 0 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa price falls to offer sweet relief by Halloween 2026 The record-breaking rally that erupted in cocoa almost two years ago appears to be over and prices have fallen back significantly. Speculative trading activity and European cocoa demand are also at... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will remain on hiatus until Q3 2026 The RBA will leave its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% on 4th November. And with inflation proving stubborn, the Bank is likely to remain on hold until the second half of next year. That said, a prolonged... 29th October 2025 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3 2025) With inflation vastly overshooting the RBA’s forecasts, the Bank won’t cut interest rates at its November meeting and the chances that it won’t loosen policy any further are rising. 29th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American economies fared poorly in Q3 and we think that headwinds ranging... 28th October 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 2025) The slight decline in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index in October leaves it at its lowest since “Liberation Day” and will help assure the Fed that another interest rate cut tomorrow is... 28th October 2025 · 2 mins read
