Which EMs could be the next to hike?

We doubt that any other major EM central bank will imminently follow Colombia in kicking off hiking cycles, although a strengthening of inflation pressures in parts of Central Europe (Czechia and Poland) and domestic demand in Taiwan could prompt their central banks to pull the trigger by next year. The bigger picture is that Colombia is a unique case in EMs; at the moment the story is one of easing cycles continuing. There is limited scope for further interest rate cuts across Asia and parts of Latin America where rates are close to or at neutral, and more scope in EMs that are coming out of inflation shocks (e.g. Brazil, Nigeria, Turkey, Russia).