Emerging Markets Economics

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The latest key insights, in-depth analysis and thematic research collections

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles: how are they likely to shape up?

Recent interest rate cuts in Brazil and Chile have fuelled talk of a broad-based EM easing cycle and we expect most EM central banks to start cutting rates in Q4 or Q1. We expect those with the...

9th August 2023 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economic Outlook

Central banks shifting into easing mode

EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in...

29th June 2023 30 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Assessing the early evidence of “friend-shoring” in EMs

One way in which EMs may benefit from the fragmentation of the global economy into US- and China-aligned blocs is via “friend-shoring”. There appears to be evidence that the US is importing a higher...

19th July 2023 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

How feasible is a BRICS currency?

The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting...

4th May 2023 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM food security risks back in the spotlight

Risks to EM food supply have increased amid the likelihood of an El Niño, the end to the Black Sea grain deal and India’s rice export ban. Countries in the Middle East and Africa are the most...

28th July 2023 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks

Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major...

17th November 2022 18 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie?

The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets...

11th May 2022 14 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

Assessing the inflation threat from EM labour markets

Labour markets look very tight in Central Europe and a handful of other EMs (particularly in Latin America), and we think that wage growth is unlikely to fall far enough in these countries to bring...

2nd March 2023 19 mins read

Our View

Central banks shifting into easing mode

EM growth will be weaker than most expect over the coming quarters. And with inflation falling back at the same time, the nascent EM monetary easing cycle will broaden out. Strong wage pressures in Latin America and Emerging Europe will limit how far inflation falls and how far central banks there can cut interest rates. Inflation and rates are likely to be a lot lower across much of Asia. EM external and financial vulnerabilities are generally smaller than they were a few months ago, but we remain concerned about a handful of countries including Colombia, Turkey and some Frontier Markets.