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Emerging Markets Economics

Our Emerging Markets service, backed by one of the largest teams of EM economists globally, offers timely reactions to market trends and insightful analysis of key issues, such as the end of economic outperformance, impacting emerging markets as a whole.

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From timely reactions to market developments to prescient deep dives into big picture issues such as the end of economic outperformance, this overview service provides insight into the cross-cutting themes and issues affecting emerging markets as a group. Our EM overview service includes access to a number of our proprietary indicators, including our monthly gauge of capital flows.

The subscription to this service includes 3-4 publications a week, access to our online research archive and our economists, and the opportunity to attend our conferences, forums and webinars.

  • Consensus-beating forecasts from one of the largest team of EM economists in the world.
  • Access to proprietary data that reveal what’s really happening in EMs.
  • Non-consensus, big picture analysis.
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Our View

Energy shock upends EM outlook

The Iran conflict is hurting almost every part of the emerging world but there are stark differences in the extent of exposure. Gulf economies are of course worst-affected. EM energy producers elsewhere are seeing a terms-of-trade windfall, although we think this is unlikely to result in a material boost to GDP. Large net energy importers are unequivocally worse off, as countries face higher prices and disruption to supplies of energy and products such as fertiliser. The longer the crisis continues, the greater the risk that balance of payments strains build for net energy importers. One silver lining of the current situation is that EMs were generally looking well-positioned on our preferred risk indicators before the crisis began.

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